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Global Risks 2012 Summary

Core Content

The Global Risks 2012 report, now in its seventh edition, is a collaborative initiative by the World Economic Forum and several key partners, including Marsh & McLennan Companies, Swiss Reinsurance Company, Wharton Center for Risk Management, and Zurich Financial Services. It aims to map, monitor, manage, and mitigate global risks by examining 50 risks across five categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.

The report introduces the concept of Centres of Gravity, which are the risks of greatest systemic importance within each category. These are identified based on survey responses from 469 experts across various sectors. The Centres of Gravity for 2012 are:

• Chronic fiscal imbalances (economic)
• Greenhouse gas emissions (environmental)
• Global governance failure (geopolitical)
• Unsustainable population growth (societal)
• Critical systems failure (technological)

The report also highlights Critical Connectors, which are risks that link the Centres of Gravity, and Weak Signals, which are less connected and more uncertain. These risk classifications help in understanding the complex interdependencies among global risks.

Main Viewpoints

1. Global Risks Landscape

• The report uses a 1–5 scale to assess the likelihood and potential impact of global risks over the next 10 years.
• Economic risks have moved to the forefront in terms of perceived likelihood, surpassing environmental risks.
• Societal risks have emerged as the second most impactful category, highlighting the growing concern over social stability and inequality.

2. Three Key Risk Cases

Case 1: Seeds of Dystopia

• Dystopia refers to a future where life is full of hardship and devoid of hope.
• The case highlights fiscal, demographic, and societal risks that could lead to a dystopian future.
• A growing youth population faces chronic unemployment, while an aging population becomes dependent on heavily indebted governments.
• This imbalance could lead to social and political instability, with the potential for a downward spiral of economic conditions due to protectionism, nationalism, and populism.

Case 2: How Safe are our Safeguards?

• The increasing complexity and interdependence of global systems expose the weakness of existing safeguards.
• Risks from emerging technologies, financial interdependence, resource depletion, and climate change challenge the resilience of current protective systems.
• There is a need for more adaptable and inclusive safeguard systems that involve a wide range of stakeholders to respond effectively to global risks.

Case 3: The Dark Side of Connectivity

• Hyperconnectivity has made the world more vulnerable to cyber threats and digital disruptions.
• Online security is considered a public good, which implies a need for greater private sector involvement in protecting critical IT systems.
• The digital space is becoming a key determinant of global stability and balance of power, as influence shifts from the physical to the virtual world.

Key Information

50 Global Risks

• The report covers 50 global risks, each evaluated for likelihood and impact.
• Risks are categorized into five main types:
  • Economic: Unmanageable inflation or deflation, prolonged infrastructure neglect, hard landing of an emerging economy, etc.
  • Environmental: Unprecedented geophysical destruction, persistent extreme weather, antibiotic-resistant bacteria, etc.
  • Geopolitical: Entrenched organized crime, unilateral resource nationalization, rising rates of chronic disease, etc.
  • Societal: Vulnerability to pandemics, rising religious fanaticism, mismanagement of population aging, etc.
  • Technological: Massive digital misinformation, unintended consequences of new life science technologies, failure of intellectual property regime, etc.

Risk Constellations and Impacts

• The Arab Spring, Occupy movements, and similar incidents of civil unrest reveal growing frustration with political and economic systems.
• These events underscore the need for better management of economic and demographic changes.
• Migration plays a key role in linking these risks, especially in least-developed economies and fragile states.

Risk Typology

• The report uses a risk typology to classify risks based on their interconnectedness, impact, and likelihood.

• Critical Connectors link the five Centres of Gravity and include:

  • Severe income disparity
  • Major systemic financial failure
  • Unforeseen negative consequences of regulation
  • Extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices

• Weak Signals are risks with low perceived impact and likelihood, but they still have high uncertainty and significant variation in perception across regions. Examples include:

  • Vulnerability to geomagnetic storms
  • Proliferation of orbital debris
  • Unintended consequences of nanotechnology
  • Ineffective drug policies
  • Militarization of space

X Factors

• These are emerging concerns with unknown consequences.
• Examples include volcanic winter, epigenetics, and megaaccidents.
• While not considered global risks in the survey, they are issues to monitor in the future.

Conclusion

The Global Risks 2012 report emphasizes the interconnectedness and complexity of global risks, urging decision-makers to adopt a collaborative and proactive approach to risk management. It highlights the need for improved governance, better social contracts, and resilient systems to address the challenges posed by economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological risks. The report serves as a call to action for the international community to enhance coordination and collaboration in managing global risks, ensuring the long-term stability and prosperity of societies worldwide.