20250602-国联期货-有色金属铝月度报告_贸易摩擦反复_供需驱动有限_20页_4mb

Summary of Aluminum Market Analysis Report (June 2025)

Analyst and Credentials:

• Yang Lei, with business qualification ID F3128841 and investment consulting ID Z0020255. Report reference numbers include证监许可20111773号.

Key Findings:

• Demand: Trade friction risks constrain market confidence. During the off-peak season, aluminum alloy demand shows a downward trend with differentiated performance across segments. Power and grid infrastructure investments are mixed, photovoltaics face reduced orders and export slowdown, real estate shows marginal improvement but slower pace, home appliances and auto sectors exhibit strength with high-new energy vehicle growth but face inventory risks. Overall, consumption is driven by factors like tariff uncertainties, dampening demand outlooks.

• Supply: Aluminum supply dynamics include slowed growth in electrolytic aluminum production due to increased operational capacity constraints. Import reliance on Russian aluminum remains limited despite net import increases, but supply chains face bottlenecks from ore availability.

• Costs and Profits: Aluminum production costs are supported by high profitability in electrolytic aluminum, with production profit exceeding 3000 yuan/ton. However, raw material imports from Guinea introduce supply uncertainties, potentially easing pressure on costs. Imports of aluminum ore are high due to previous policy disruptions but stabilize with policy adjustments.

• Inventory: Stock levels are at near-record lows, with both domestic and LME inventories declining, indicating tight supply-demand balancing.

• Outlook: Trade friction and macroeconomic factors limit short-term drivers.基本面 uncertainties remain due to potential supply adjustments in aluminum ore, moderately reducing profit expectations. Short-term risks include overseas shocks; recommended hedges include buying aluminum put options for protection. Long-term perspectives suggest moderate growth but capped by high valuation.