战略与国际研究中心-Global-Economics-Monthly_-G7-Leaders-Need-To-Talk_2页_351kb

Global Economics Monthly Summary: G7 Leaders Need to Talk

Core Content

The Global Economics Monthly issue of May 2016 discusses the importance of the upcoming 42nd G7 Summit in Ise-Shima, Japan, and highlights the key themes and challenges that will be addressed by the leaders of the world's largest advanced democracies. Despite the high-profile nature of President Obama's visit to Hiroshima, the G7 summit remains a crucial platform for addressing global issues.

Main Themes and Issues

1. Global Economic Challenges

• The current global economy is described as weak, uncertain, and unbalanced, falling short of the goal of "strong, sustainable, and balanced" growth.
• A deep divide exists among G7 members regarding the root causes of economic stagnation:
  • Germany emphasizes supply-side impediments.
  • Other members (including Japan and the U.S.) focus on lack of demand.
• Stimulus measures, such as increased infrastructure spending, are likely to be proposed, but consensus is unlikely.
• Structural reforms in individual economies are expected, but follow-through depends on domestic politics.
• The article suggests that G7 leaders should focus on tangible actions, such as pushing for multilateral trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

2. Global Order and Security Challenges

• The G7 has historically aimed to bolster the global order during times of stress.
• Current challenges include:
  • Terrorism (especially from Islamic State).
  • Nuclear proliferation and missile tests by North Korea.
  • Cyber attacks and unilateral changes to the status quo.
  • Russia's aggression in Ukraine and China's assertiveness in the South China Sea.
• There is concern over China's influence, particularly regarding:
  • The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
  • Sensitive technology transfers to China.
  • Excess manufacturing capacity (especially in steel) that threatens the global economic order.
• The G7 is expected to have a full and frank discussion on these issues, especially during private sessions.

Key Events

• May 17: G7 Summit Preview (CSIS)
• May 20-21: G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (Sendai, Japan)
• May 23: 13th Five-Year Plan Report Rollout (CSIS)
• May 26-27: 42nd G7 Summit (Ise-Shima, Japan)
• June 14-15: Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (Washington, D.C.)
• June 23: UK Referendum on EU Membership

Additional Insights

• The article emphasizes that while high-level meetings may not always yield visible results, they are valuable for leaders to exchange ideas and seek common approaches.
• It also highlights the role of sherpas, who coordinate the leaders' discussions. For the U.S., this role is held by Adewale "Wally" Adeyemo, who has a background in Treasury and international economic affairs.
• Adeyemo's role is compared to the evolution of the G7 from a group of finance ministers to a leaders' summit, with ongoing rivalry between finance ministries and presidential offices.

Conclusion

The G7 summit is expected to address transnational threats and global economic challenges, with Japan playing a central role in facilitating discussions. While action is limited, the summit provides an essential platform for cooperation and dialogue among the world's leading democracies.