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Global Economics Monthly Summary - November 2016

Core Content

The Global Economics Monthly issue from November 2016, authored by Matthew P. Goodman, discusses the profound implications of the U.S. presidential election results on economic and political policies, particularly focusing on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the "3 Ps" (Personnel, Process, Policy) of the Trump administration, and the reorientation of the Simon Chair programs and priorities.

Main Points

1. TPP and the Election Impact

• The U.S. election results have significantly affected the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a key economic initiative of the Obama administration.
• Donald Trump strongly opposed the agreement and pledged to withdraw from it within his first 100 days.
• The Obama administration has abandoned efforts to secure TPP passage during the lame-duck session.
• TPP is not dead, but rather in a state of "purgatory" as U.S. trade representative Michael Froman suggested.
• The remaining 11 TPP members, including Japan and Australia, are considering moving forward with the agreement without the U.S., though this would require amending the agreement's ratification clause.
• This scenario could potentially allow for a future U.S. return to the TPP, or a similar agreement, if the Trump administration changes its stance.

2. The "3 Ps" of the Trump Administration

• The success of the Trump administration will depend on personnel, process, and policy.
• Personnel: The appointment of key officials is crucial, as incompetent officials or poor policy coordination can undermine even the best policies.
• Process: Effective interagency coordination is essential for ensuring consistency and smooth execution of policies.
• Policy: The Trump administration appears to be taking a more active role in both designing and implementing policies, which could lead to factional infighting due to the presence of strong personalities.

3. Simon Chair Reorientation

• The election reflects a "change election", indicating a desire for a shift in how Washington operates.
• The Simon Chair acknowledges the failure to anticipate the election outcome and the disconnect between policy experts and popular opinion.
• The organization plans to increase outreach to Congress and non-Washington Americans, and to focus more on domestic political dynamics that influence international economic policy.
• The reorientation aims to better explain the national interest of international engagement and to listen more closely to public sentiment.

Key Information

• TPP's fate is uncertain but not definitively lost, as the remaining members may proceed without the U.S.
• Trump's administration is expected to be more hands-on in policy design and implementation, which could lead to internal conflicts.
• The Simon Chair is adapting to the new political climate by emphasizing domestic political context and increasing public engagement.
• The election was driven by a demand for change in both economic and social policies, highlighting public discontent with the status quo.
• The U.S. interest in Asia-Pacific integration remains strong, despite the current administration's stance on TPP.

Conclusion

The November 2016 issue of Global Economics Monthly reflects on the impact of the U.S. election on international economic policy, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the TPP, the importance of the "3 Ps" in governance, and the need for the Simon Chair to adapt to the new political landscape. The document underscores that while policy may change, U.S. interests in global economic engagement are unlikely to shift, and that the future of international cooperation will depend on effective coordination and public understanding.