2018年-世界发展银行全球_Western_Balkans_Labor_Market_Trends_2018_118页_6mb

Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2018 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of labor market trends in the six Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia) and selected EU peer countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary) between the second quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017. It draws on national labor force surveys and the SEE Jobs Gateway database to present key labor market indicators, including employment, unemployment, activity rates, and wage levels.

Main Points

Labor Market Improvements

• Employment Growth: The region created 231,000 new jobs, leading to a 3.9% increase in employment.
  • Kosovo saw the highest growth at 9.2%.
  • Serbia recorded a 4.3% increase.
  • Self-employment accounted for 60% of the total employment growth.
• Unemployment Decline: Unemployment fell by 169,000 people, from 18.6% to 16.2%.
  • Some countries reached historical lows in unemployment.
• Activity Rates: Regional activity rates increased by 1.2 percentage points, reaching 62%.
  • Serbia reported the strongest increase in self-employment.
  • Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina saw the largest declines in inactivity.
• Youth Unemployment: Youth unemployment decreased by 5.3 percentage points to 37.6%, but remained high compared to EU levels.
  • NEET rates (not in employment, education, or training) were 23.5% on average, with Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina having the highest rates (26–30%).

Key Challenges

• Low Activity Rates: Particularly among women and young people, remain a major issue.
• High Informality: A significant portion of the labor force is in informal employment, including self-employed in unregistered businesses, unpaid family workers, and wage workers without contracts.
• Long-Term Unemployment: Over 80% of unemployed individuals in some countries are long-term unemployed.
• Gender Gap in Activity Rates: The gap ranged from 13.5% in Serbia to 45.5% in Kosovo, with females having the lowest participation.
• Skill Mismatch: There is a discrepancy between education and labor market demands, leading to underutilization of skills.

Wage Trends

• Wage Inequality: The high concentration of low-wage earners is a key driver of wage inequality.
  • Montenegro had the highest share of low-wage earners at 27.3%, followed by FYR Macedonia at 25.1% and Serbia at 22.9%, compared to an EU average of 17.2%.
  • Youth and low-educated workers had the highest share of low-wage earners.
• Wage Growth: Real wage growth was high before the 2007/2008 crisis, but declined sharply after.
  • Growth accelerated in EU peer countries, but not in the Western Balkans.
• Wage Levels: Albania reported the lowest wage levels, while Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina had the highest.

Emigration and Its Impact

• Net Sender of Migrants: The Western Balkans have been a net sender of migrants for decades, with ~30% of the resident population living outside the region.
• Characteristics of Emigrants: Emigrants are young and highly educated, which may lead to skill shortages in the region.
• Remittances: They are an important source of income and funds investment, but may also contribute to inactivity and informality.
• Long-Term Effects: High emigration could negatively impact human capital formation, competitiveness, and economic convergence.

Key Information

• The Jobs Gateway BMF is a Community of Practice for labor market policies in the Western Balkans.
• The report is financially supported by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance.
• The SEE Jobs Gateway Database is a key source for labor market data, with online access available at http://SEEJobsGateway.net.
• The report includes a special topic on improving data on labor mobility, highlighting the need for better data collection and analysis.

Conclusion

While the Western Balkans experienced positive labor market trends, including job creation, lower unemployment, and increased activity rates, systemic challenges such as low female participation, high informality, and skill mismatches persist. Additionally, emigration of skilled workers continues to affect human capital and economic development, underscoring the need for policy reforms and improved data systems to support labor market integration and economic convergence.