20240205-紫金天风-玉米周报_售粮情绪下降_玉米筑底反弹_30页_4mb

# Market Analysis Summary

International Outlook

• Ukraine Corn Export: 1m2024 corn export forecast at ~380万吨, down from 610万吨 in Jan 2023 (est. data).

• Brazilian Corn Drought: Forecasts dry conditions will persist in the main产区 this week, hindering development of the first-crop.

  • First-crop planting rate at 92.4%, behind last year's 97.8%.

• Brazil Corn Export: APAC Feb arrivals forecast at 82.35 MT, cumulative export for Jan ~1.39864 MT, down 13.7 MT/month YoY.

Domestic Supply

• China Corn Market: Price steady due to slowed farmer selling pace & light trading in regions.
  • Price fell below 2400 CNY/ton in parts due to light sales intention + snow fall.
  • Port inventory low, market sentiment anticipates tighter supplies post-harvest.

Feed Demand

• Swine Market: Price rose 9.1% week-over-week fueled by high margins (Fatteners profitable). Reduced dietary demands expected post-festive season.
• Feedstock Market: Low feed prices easing production costs, but consumption trends waning.

Deep Processing

• Corn Starch Mfg: Profits saw minor declines (吉林 down 41 CNY/ton) w/ high utilization (~74.1%), signifying sustainable margins.

Substitutes (Premiums/Cost支撑)

• Rice/Maize Differential: Widening gap signaling better value for corn. Pair maize-wheat spread up 7 CNY/ton, implying support for corn.

Weather Influence

• Transport Impact: Snow/ice likely disrupt logistics, but inventory inventories low so far (N. China ports e.g.- border with big decrease - March 8 to March 7 indicating weakening import activity in imports)
• Corn Drought Status: Continued dry in key corn-producing regions favors higher prices.

Futures & Open Interest

• Positioning: Net open interest bearish (-2.754 million hands); short position increase suggesting sentiment bearish.
• CBOT Price Range: Fluctuated (~436.5 - 448.75¢), tracking strong demand signals from export progress.

Key Takeaways & Trend Outlook

• Main Theme: Corn prices saw slight recovery, touching 2.35k-2.45k CNY/ton, with demand improving [pigs and processing sectors] if margins improve.
• Supply-demand: Supply-side pressure less as farmer sales near conclusion; demand needs verification, hence prices steady/range-bound.