新加坡国际事务研究所-雾霾展望：2021年发生严重跨界雾霾事件的风险（英）-2021_24页_3mb

HAZE Outlook 2021 Summary

Core Content

The HAZE Outlook 2021 report, published by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), provides a risk assessment of the likelihood of a severe transboundary haze incident in Southeast Asia, specifically affecting Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore in 2021. It highlights the interplay between weather, peatland management, and human behavior in determining the risk level.

Main Points

Risk Assessment

• The report concludes that the risk of a severe transboundary haze incident in 2021 is low, with the overall rating being Green on a scale of Green, Amber, and Red.
• This is the first time the risk rating has been Green, indicating a significant improvement over previous years.
• The low risk is attributed to three factors:
  • Weather: The 2021 dry season is expected to have normal or average conditions, not significantly drier than 2020.
  • Peatland Management: Indonesia has taken positive steps in managing peatlands and forests, including the renewal of the Peatland Restoration Agency (BRG) mandate and its expansion to include mangrove areas.
  • Human Behavior: While agricultural commodity prices are rising, this is not expected to lead to increased land clearing and burning in 2021, as most companies view plantations as long-cycle businesses.

Historical Context

• 2020 was one of Indonesia's wettest years on record, with fewer fires and hotspots compared to 2019.
• The number of fire alerts dropped from 10,513 in 2019 to 1,032 in 2020, with the burnt area also decreasing significantly.
• The deforestation rate in 2020 was 296,942 hectares, an 82% drop from 2019, though still higher than 2020's actual deforestation rate of 115,459 hectares.

Impact of the Pandemic

• COVID-19 had a reducing effect on burning in Indonesia, partly due to economic disruptions and reduced agricultural activity.
• Private sector efforts in fire management and monitoring were not reduced, with some companies even increasing personnel.
• Community outreach and suppliers engagement were affected due to travel restrictions, but remote assessments helped maintain some level of oversight.

Policy and Governance

• The Indonesian government, under President Joko Widodo, has shown commitment to sustainability, with a focus on forest and peatland restoration.
• The Peatland and Mangrove Restoration Agency (BRGM) was extended to 2024 and expanded in scope.
• The Omnibus Law passed in 2020 is expected to simplify land use licensing, potentially facilitating carbon credit generation.

Sustainable Business Opportunities

• Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) are highlighted as a key opportunity for reducing haze and emissions, with potential for carbon credit generation.
• Indonesia is considered a potential source for carbon credits, but the sector is still in its early stages.
• The Katingan Mentaya Project is an example of a successful conservation and restoration initiative generating carbon credits.
• There are uncertainties about how Indonesian authorities will regulate and shape the carbon credit market.

Key Information

• Transboundary haze is a longstanding issue in Southeast Asia, with serious health and environmental impacts.
• Human activity is the main driver of forest and land fires, rather than natural causes.
• Climate action is a priority post-pandemic, with Singapore aiming to become a carbon trading hub.
• Climate Impact X (CIX), a new global carbon exchange, is being developed to support carbon credit trading.
• Indonesia's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement aim to limit deforestation to 3.25 million hectares by 2030.
• Deforestation is a major contributor to emissions, with agriculture and forestry accounting for 50–60% of Indonesia's annual emissions.

Conclusion

The HAZE Outlook 2021 is a positive assessment of the low risk of a severe haze incident, but it also acknowledges future concerns, particularly around the Omnibus Law and sustainability of economic growth. The report emphasizes the importance of integrating climate action with economic recovery, promoting sustainable land management and nature-based solutions as opportunities for the future.

Appendix Highlights

• Case Studies and Literature Review provide context and trends in fire and haze research, reinforcing the need for long-term strategies.
• The report draws on stakeholder input, including government agencies, businesses, NGOs, and academics, to offer a comprehensive analysis of the haze issue and potential solutions.

Authors and Contributors

• Simon Tay (Chairman, SIIA; Associate Professor, NUS Faculty of Law; Senior Consultant, WongPartnership)
• Meixi Gan (Deputy Director, Sustainability, SIIA)
• Aaron Choo, Khor Yu Leng, Siti Bazilah, and Nadirah Sharif (authors of the report)
• 25 stakeholders were consulted, including government bodies, financial institutions, businesses, NGOs, and academics.

References

• Satellite data from NASA and official statistics from Indonesia's Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK)
• World Resources Institute (WRI) and UNFCCC data on emissions and deforestation
• Climate Impact X (CIX) and Sustainable Palm Oil initiatives as key policy and business developments

Future Outlook

• The report encourages vigilance and sustainable practices to prevent future haze incidents.
• Nature-Based Solutions and carbon markets are promising avenues for long-term climate action.
• The success of 2020 may not be repeated, as uncertainties remain about future policy and economic trends.