新加坡国际事务研究所-新加坡未来的全球和区域战略（英）-2021.10-20页_1mb

Summary of HORIZONS: Global and Regional Strategies for Singapore's Future

Core Content

This report, authored by Simon Tay and Satya Ramamurthy, presents a comprehensive analysis of Singapore's post-COVID-19 growth strategies, focusing on both global and regional engagement. It highlights the challenges posed by the ongoing pandemic and the need for Singapore to adapt and innovate to emerge stronger, better, greener, and more united.

Main Points

1. Impact of the Pandemic

• The pandemic has had severe health and economic impacts globally, with over 217 million reported cases and 4.51 million deaths as of 31 August 2021.
• Singapore's economy contracted by 5.4% in 2020, the worst slump since independence, with construction, transport, accommodation, and food and beverage sectors hit hardest.
• The government allocated nearly S$100 billion in support via five emergency budgets, with 2020 seeing the largest budget deficit in Singapore's history.

2. Global Trends and Implications

• Economic Rebound: Major economies like the USA, China, and the Eurozone are recovering, which drives global demand. However, vaccine rollouts and the spread of new variants are creating uncertainty.
• Divergence of Growth: The recovery is uneven, with some countries outpacing others. Singapore has revised its 2021 GDP growth forecast upwards, but many ASEAN economies have had to moderate their expectations.
• Changing Global Order: Sino-American tensions are reshaping global supply chains, leading to a push for regional and domestic resilience. The pandemic has also highlighted the importance of securing essential goods and diversifying supply chains.
• Rise of the Digital Economy: The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, with remote working, e-commerce, and mobile banking becoming more mainstream. However, this shift is complicated by geopolitical tensions affecting technology and supply chain interoperability.
• Shift towards Sustainable Growth: Climate change awareness has increased post-pandemic, with many countries, including the EU, China, Japan, and South Korea, committing to green recovery. Singapore's Green Plan 2030 aims to involve the private sector and citizens in sustainability efforts, not only for environmental protection but also as a driver of economic transformation.

3. Singapore's Strategic Positioning

• Singapore must refocus on reopening the economy and reconnecting to the world, as emphasized by PM Lee Hsien Loong.
• The report suggests that Singapore's role as a Global-Asia node and regional hub should be strengthened, especially in light of shifting global supply chains and Sino-American competition.
• Singapore should deepen its bilateral partnerships with key ASEAN economies such as Indonesia and Vietnam, which are projected to grow significantly in 2021 despite the pandemic's impact.

4. Regional Engagement and Collaboration

• Singapore should enhance its ASEAN readiness by encouraging its citizens to have better cultural, linguistic, and business understanding of the region.
• The JI-BBK (Johor, Iskandar Malaysia, Batam, Bintan, Karimun) region is critical for Singapore's resilience. Collaborative arrangements with these areas should ensure the continuity of essential goods and services even in the face of border restrictions.
• Singapore should support sustainability and climate action in the region, leveraging its strengths in finance, technology, and training to foster cross-border initiatives.

5. Recommendations

• Global-Asia Node: Singapore should enhance its role as a regional hub for global and Asian businesses, supporting both inward and outward investment.
• ASEAN Partnerships: Deepen collaboration with Indonesia and Vietnam, especially in infrastructure, digital transformation, and sustainability.
• Sustainability Initiatives: Promote green recovery and sustainable infrastructure, such as smart city projects and net-zero energy buildings.
• Resilience Building: Strengthen resilience through domestic production and regional linkages, particularly with JI-BBK.
• Public-Private Collaboration: Encourage partnerships between Singapore's businesses and ASEAN countries to upskill local workforces and attract high-value investments.

Key Information

• Singapore's growth strategy must be forward-looking, inclusive, and sustainable.
• The Emerging Stronger Taskforce (EST) has played a key role in shaping these strategies, with the SIIA acting as a knowledge partner.
• The report is tailored for public consideration, emphasizing collective wisdom and regional integration.
• Indonesia and Vietnam are identified as key partners due to their economic potential and political stability.
• Singapore's sustainability efforts should extend beyond national borders to support the broader ASEAN region.

Conclusion

Singapore's future growth strategies must be aligned with global and regional trends, particularly in the digital economy and sustainability. The report advocates for a more integrated, resilient, and collaborative approach to ensure Singapore's continued prosperity in an increasingly complex and uncertain world. By focusing on ASEAN engagement, sustainable development, and global connectivity, Singapore can emerge not just stronger, but also better, greener, and more united.