新加坡国际事务研究所-北非的核复兴？阿尔及利亚、利比亚和埃及的事态发展（英文）-2021.5-23页_873kb

Summary of "Nuclear Revival in North Africa?"

Core Content

This paper examines the development and current status of nuclear science and technology in three North African countries: Algeria, Libya, and Egypt. It explores their historical engagement with nuclear research, the establishment of nuclear infrastructure, and their future aspirations for nuclear energy, while also highlighting the political and institutional challenges they face. The study emphasizes the peaceful applications of nuclear technology, the role of international collaboration, and the lingering public and political concerns regarding nuclear programs.

Main Points

Nuclear Infrastructure and Institutions

• Egypt:

  • Operates two research reactors: one acquired from the Soviet Union in 1961 and another built in 1992.
  • Has a long-standing interest in building nuclear power plants, with concrete steps taken to construct four reactors, backed by a 2015 agreement with Russia.
  • Established the Egyptian Atomic Energy Authority (EAEA) to manage nuclear activities and has been involved in medical, agricultural, and industrial applications of nuclear technology.

• Algeria:

  • Has two research reactors: the 1 MW Nur reactor (1989) and the 15 MW Es-Salem reactor (1992).
  • The Commission of Atomic Energy (COMENA) oversees nuclear research and its peaceful applications, while the Directorate of Nuclear Energy (DEN) was established in 2007 to coordinate national nuclear energy policy.
  • Algeria is considered to have the largest uranium reserves in the Middle East, estimated at 26,000 tons.

• Libya:

  • Operates a Soviet-designed 10 MW research reactor in Tajura, which became operational in 1981.
  • The Atomic Energy Establishment (AEE) manages nuclear research and training, with a focus on peaceful applications.
  • Libya dismantled its nuclear weapons program in 2003, leading to international recognition and cooperation with the IAEA.

Peaceful Applications of Nuclear Technology

• Egypt:

  • The Nuclear Research Centre in Tajura produces isotopes for agriculture, medicine, geology, biology, and industry.
  • Engages in desalination and medical isotope use, with over 125 medical facilities utilizing radioactive sources.

• Algeria:

  • COMENA conducts research in radioisotopes, radiobiology, and pharmaceuticals.
  • Utilizes gamma irradiators for agricultural applications and has explored uranium mining and the development of nuclear installations.

• Libya:

  • The Nuclear Research Centre in Tajura and the Centre for Radiological Measurements and Training are key institutions.
  • The AEE has been involved in desalination and other peaceful uses, though the civil war has caused uncertainty.

International Agreements and Politics

• Egypt:

  • Signed an agreement with Russia in 2015 to build four reactors.
  • Has a regulatory body for nuclear and radiological control.

• Algeria:

  • Has collaborated with the IAEA, Russia, the US, and Argentina.
  • Signed a bilateral agreement with Russia in 2015 for potential nuclear power plant cooperation.
  • Has not signed the Additional Protocol due to concerns over international oversight.

• Libya:

  • Signed the NPT in 1975 and the Additional Protocol in 2004 after cooperating with the IAEA.
  • Signed a Country Programme Framework with the IAEA in 2019 to support national development using nuclear technology.

Plans for Nuclear Power Plants

• Egypt:

  • Plans to build the Al Dabaa nuclear power plant with Russian assistance.
  • The project is in its early stages, with ongoing public and political discussions.

• Algeria:

  • Has not officially shelved plans for a nuclear power plant.
  • A 2014 statement outlined a goal to have a reactor by 2029.
  • No tenders have been issued yet, and political instability may delay the project.

• Libya:

  • Has proposed plans for a first nuclear power plant, but these have been stalled due to political instability.
  • The AEE continues to explore nuclear energy, though it remains in the pre-project phase.

Obstacles and Challenges

• Political Instability:

  • Libya's civil war has hindered progress and raised concerns about the misuse of nuclear materials.
  • Algeria's political turmoil, including the 2019 resignation of President Bouteflika, has created uncertainty.

• Economic and Technical Constraints:

  • High costs and lack of technical expertise are significant barriers.
  • Public skepticism and lack of transparency in nuclear activities have persisted.

• Security and Environmental Concerns:

  • Concerns about the potential for nuclear materials to be used in weapons or for dirty bombs.
  • The need for a radioactive waste management system is critical, especially in Libya due to its oil and gas industry.

Collaboration and Discourse

• All three countries have expressed interest in nuclear energy, with similar discourses on its potential benefits.
• There have been instances of collaboration, particularly with Russia and the IAEA.
• Despite the lack of concrete action, the idea of nuclear energy remains an important part of their national development strategies.

Key Information

• The paper highlights the underexplored peaceful applications of nuclear technology in North Africa, as opposed to the focus on proliferation and weapons.
• It underscores the importance of understanding the political and institutional frameworks that support nuclear research and development.
• The future of nuclear energy in these countries remains uncertain, with many plans still in the conceptual or pre-project phase.
• Public perception and transparency in nuclear policy are significant factors influencing the acceptance and implementation of nuclear energy projects.

Conclusion

The paper suggests that while all three countries have the infrastructure and interest in nuclear technology, the realization of nuclear power plants is hindered by political, economic, and security challenges. The study emphasizes the need for further research on the political and public discourse surrounding nuclear energy in North Africa, as well as the potential for regional collaboration.