20251203-国投期货-软商品日报_3页_3mb

Summary of Market Analysis Report

Cotton

Today, cotton prices saw a small downward trend, with cotton yarn steadily holding. Overall market sentiment is stable, though new cotton production increased significantly. Commercial inventories remain low, and sales progress is fast, providing strong support for the futures market. This comes after a winter planting period with higher-than-average yields. Key data shows cumulative processed cotton reaching 528.50 million tons, up 79.10 million tons year-on-year. Commercial inventories as of November 15th were 363.15 million tons, down 20.43 million tons year-on-year. For the next period, watch for demand booms before the Chinese New Year. With expectations for new planting cycles, target prices may adjust. Short-term, look for profit-taking opportunities; strategies include light buying on dips or cautious观望.

Sugar

Overnight sugar prices oscillated. Brazil reported moderate production data with higher sugarcane milling but lower yield, maintaining high sugar output. India's production progressed faster, also increasing yields. Domestically, Zheng sugar is weak, with October imports declining but general supply pressure ongoing. Market focus shifts to post-harvest estimates; weather data suggests a favorable harvest in Guangxi, potentially boosting output. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain bearish due to supply pressures.

Apple

Apple futures prices are in a high-position oscillation. Spot prices hold steady, with active trading in storage areas. Sales volumes are slow, particularly in Shandong and Northwest regions. Total national storage inventory as of November 28th is 729.35 million tons, down 13.21% year-on-year. With poor quality but high purchase prices, traders and producers are holding goods, which may slow inventory reduction. Key uncertainty is demand-driven inventory clearance; prices could continue to oscillate based on this.

20-Grade Rubber

Prices for all grades of natural rubber and synthetic rubber decreased; synthetic rubber saw upward trends in price. Global supply is transitioning from high output to reduction, with China's Yunnan region entering the harvest pause. Demand remains mixed, with tire industry production rising but not strong. Inventories increased, reflecting slower inventory reduction. Strategies include cautious buying on dips and looking for cross-commodity arbitrage opportunities.

Natural Rubber

Natural rubber prices declined, with synthetic rubber prices rising. Supply is contracting due to the end of harvest seasons, affecting domestic China's output. Demand is steady but not strong, supported by industrial uses. Inventory data shows increased stockpiles in key regions, pressuring prices. Market sentiment is neutral, with strategies favoring观望 or riskier arbitrage.

Synthetic Rubber

Synthetic rubber prices rose amid stronger demand, but supply fluctuations caused volatility. Data shows lower开工 rates in key plants due to maintenance and reduced output. Outside, imports and exports vary, with Thai raw material prices falling. Overall, supply pressures are easing slowly; strategies depend on cost supports but require caution.

Paper Pulp

Pulp prices follow market trends, with recent declines near support levels. Supply remains abundant at major ports, with inventory high. Demand is weak in downstream industries, limiting buyer enthusiasm. Operationally, strategies include观望 or quick trades around support areas.

Wood

Main wood prices held steady, with supply tight due to controlled imports. Onshore demand provides some支撑, but库存 pressure is low. For操作,建议暂觀观望 opportunities in the market.