2025-06-12-Jefferies-阿尔尼拉姆制药（ALNY）_Amvuttra处方追踪器_ATTR_-_CM推出展现增长势头_月环比增长29_8页_137kb

Summary of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Equity Research Report (June 13, 2025)

Key Findings:
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) maintains a strong position with its RNAi therapeutics, focusing on rare diseases, cardiovascular conditions, and infectious diseases. Amvuttra, approved in March 2025 for ATTR-CM (transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis), has shown significant momentum, with WAC institutional sales reaching $105 million in April 2025, representing a +29% month-over-month increase. This growth is attributed to strong demand for the drug, indicating early success in commercial launch. The equity rating is BUY, with a price target of $328, implying an +8% target from the current price.

Sales Data and Momentum:

• Amvuttra sales to U.S. institutions (hospitals) were $82 million in March, $105 million in April, and estimated $60 million in May.
• Growth reflects 25% gross-to-net adjustment, with a 65% capture rate assumption.ATTR-PN sales remain stable, supporting back-calculation of ATTR-CM contributions, though separation from overall sales is unclear due to hospital billing strategies.
• Sales trends suggest that early uptake of Amvuttra may indicate a faster start to the commercial story than expected, potentially leading to better-than-projected results.

Financial Projections and Targets:

• For 2025, total ATTR franchise sales are guided to $1.6-1.7 billion. Current sales data suggest possible adjustment of this guidance in the upcoming Q2 earnings.
• Q2 sales could reach up to $150 million for ATTR-CM alone, potentially exceeding estimates for the year and beating the $300 million consensus.
• Price target is $328, based on DCF and probability-adjusted EPS analyses, with risks including efficacy, commercial execution, and competition.

Company Overview and Valuation:

• Alnylam is a late-stage biotech company specializing in RNAi therapeutics, with a pipeline targeting multiple disease areas, including ATTR-CM and -PN, hypercholesterolemia, and hemophilia.
• Current total market capitalization is $39.5 billion.
• Valuation risks include potential competition, payer reimbursement challenges, and uncertainty in commercial rollout.

Additional Context:
The report highlights strong demand for Amvuttra post-launch, with comments from Jefferies analysts noting the importance of monitoring prescriber behavior, patient demographics (tx-naive vs switches), and payer dynamics in future earnings calls. No major red flags emerge beyond standard commercial risks.