2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Georgia_Third_Review_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_Arrangement_74页_2mb

报告摘要

Georgia: Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF)

Core Content

This document is the IMF Country Report No. 18/373 for Georgia's Third Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). It outlines the country's economic performance, program implementation, and policy discussions as of December 2018. The report includes a Press Release, Staff Report, and Staff Supplement.

Main Points

Program Implementation

The 36-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF), approved on April 12, 2017, is on track.
All end-June 2018 performance criteria (PCs) were met, with some exceeding targets significantly.
All structural benchmarks (SBs) were observed except one, which was completed with a two-week delay.
The completion of the review will release SDR 30 million, bringing total disbursements to SDR 120 million.

Economic Performance

Real GDP growth for 2018 was revised to 5.0%, up from the second review.
Inflation remained below the 3% target, with headline inflation at 2.3% (y/y) in October 2018.
Fiscal surplus through September 2018 was 2.7% of GDP, exceeding program projections.
External position strengthened, with gross international reserves reaching $3.15 billion by end-September 2018.

Structural Reforms

Structural reforms are critical for achieving higher and more inclusive growth.
Key priorities include:
- Adopting a new corporate insolvency law.
- Implementing a comprehensive education reform.
The new insolvency framework for nonfinancial corporations is being developed.
Education reform is expected to improve opportunities and jobs, with a focus on teacher quality and salary increases.

Fiscal Policy

The 2019 deficit is set at 2.6% of GDP, targeting a broadly neutral fiscal stance.
Social spending will increase, including:
- A five-fold increase in monthly targeted child benefits.
- A one-off allocation for education reform.
VAT refunds will be accelerated to reduce the stock of outstanding credits and support economic activity.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

The inflation-targeting framework and floating exchange rate regime remain in place.
The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) continues to build international reserves due to heightened external uncertainty.
The lari appreciated slightly in nominal terms and remained stable in real terms.

Financial Sector

The banking sector is well capitalized, liquid, and profitable, with capital adequacy and liquidity ratios at 18% and 31%, respectively.
Dollarization remains high, with 62.2% of total credit in September 2018.
Regulations to limit household over-indebtedness were introduced, and private credit growth remained strong at 20% y/y.

External Sector

Current account deficit for 2018 is expected at 9.0% of GDP, slightly lower than the second review.
External debt is projected to decline gradually, reducing financing requirements.
External risks include trade shocks, global trade tensions, and weaker global growth.

Key Information

Economic and Financial Indicators (2015-2019)

Indicator	2015	2016	2017	2018	2018	2019
Real GDP (annual % change)	2.9	2.8	5.0	4.8	5.0	4.6
Nominal GDP (in billion of laris)	31.8	34.0	38.0	41.4	41.6	45.0
Nominal GDP (in billion of USD)	14.0	14.4	15.2	16.9	16.5	17.2
GDP per capita (in thousand of USD)	3.8	3.9	4.1	4.5	4.4	4.6
GDP deflator (annual % change)	5.9	4.2	6.5	3.8	4.2	3.4
CPI (annual % change)	4.0	2.1	6.0	2.8	2.8	3.1
CPI (end-of-period)	4.9	1.8	6.7	2.7	2.3	3.0
Gross national saving (in % of GDP)	18.9	19.6	23.1	25.5	25.5	25.4
Investment (in % of GDP)	31.5	32.7	31.9	34.7	34.5	34.9
Public investment (in % of GDP)	5.6	5.0	6.1	6.8	6.6	7.1
Private investment (in % of GDP)	25.9	27.7	25.8	27.9	27.9	27.9
Revenue and grants (in % of GDP)	28.1	28.3	29.0	27.9	27.9	28.0
Tax revenue (in % of GDP)	25.1	25.7	26.0	25.0	25.0	25.1
Expenditures (in % of GDP)	32.0	32.5	32.7	31.1	30.8	30.9
Current expenditures (in % of GDP)	25.0	26.0	24.2	23.1	23.0	23.1
Capital spending and budget lending (in % of GDP)	7.0	6.5	8.5	7.9	7.8	7.8
Net lending/borrowing (GFSM 2001)	-1.2	-1.5	-0.5	-1.6	-1.2	-1.9
Augmented net lending/borrowing (Program definition)	-2.6	-2.9	-2.9	-2.8	-2.3	-2.6
Public debt (in % of GDP)	41.4	44.4	44.9	42.8	43.4	43.5
Foreign-currency denominated debt (in % of GDP)	32.5	35.1	35.6	33.2	34.1	33.8
Current account balance (in % of GDP)	-12.6	-13.1	-8.8	-9.2	-9.0	-9.5
Trade balance (in % of GDP)	-28.1	-26.9	-25.0	-27.2	-27.4	-27.4
Terms of trade (percent change)	30.6	-1.2	-2.7	-1.9	-4.9	-0.9
Gross international reserves (in billion of USD)	2.5	2.8	3.0	3.3	3.2	3.5
Public sector debt sustainability	41.4	44.4	44.9	42.8	43.4	43.5

Fiscal and External Outturns

Revenue and grants reached 27.9% of GDP in September 2018, exceeding projections.
Public debt was 42.8% of GDP at end-September 2018, down from 44.9%.
Gross national saving was 25.5% of GDP in 2018, up from 23.1% in 2017.
Net public debt was 3.6% of GDP in September 2018.

Summary

The IMF continues to support Georgia's reform program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The third review confirmed that the program is on track, with strong economic performance and satisfactory implementation of quantitative and structural benchmarks. While inflation and the current account deficit remain within manageable levels, downside risks have increased due to external uncertainties and potential slowdowns in credit and investment growth.

Key policy priorities include:

Maintaining a prudent fiscal policy.
Accelerating VAT refunds to support economic activity.
Implementing a comprehensive education reform.
Advancing structural reforms to improve the business environment and promote inclusive growth.
Strengthening financial resilience and international reserves.

The 2019 budget is expected to maintain a broadly neutral fiscal stance, while increasing social spending and public investment. The reform momentum is seen as essential for long-term growth and stability.

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