2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Armenia_Request_for_Arrangement_Under_the_Extended_Fund_Facility_107页_1mb

Summary of the Republic of Armenia's Request for Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility

Core Content

The Republic of Armenia requested a new 38-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in 2014, following the expiration of a previous three-year program. The request aims to consolidate stability, reduce vulnerabilities, and support growth through further reforms in the transition to a dynamic emerging market economy.

Main Objectives of the Program

• Consolidate stability and buffers against possible external shocks.
• Support growth through structural reforms and improved fiscal and monetary policies.
• Safeguard sound public finances and ensure a declining path for public debt.
• Promote regional integration, competitiveness, and investment to enhance long-term economic performance.

Key Economic Developments

• Growth slowed in 2013 to 3.2 percent, down from 7.1 percent in 2012.
• Inflation rose sharply in 2013 due to energy price hikes, peaking at 9.3 percent, but declined to 5.6 percent by year-end.
• Current account deficit decreased to 8.5 percent of GDP, the first single-digit deficit since 2007.
• Dram appreciation occurred, supported by improved external conditions and increased reserves.
• Eurobond issuance and Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) accession were major financial and trade decisions in 2013.

Program Policies

A. Fiscal Policy

• The program supports a modest fiscal stimulus in 2014, targeting a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP.
• Fiscal consolidation begins in 2015, aiming to reduce the deficit to 2 percent of GDP, then to 1.8 percent.
• Revenue measures will focus on improving tax administration and addressing tax gaps.
• Social spending will be prioritized, with efforts to improve targeting, efficiency, and quality of social programs.
• Institutional reforms include creating risk management units at the Finance Ministry and State Revenue Committee (SRC).

B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) will continue its inflation targeting framework and exchange rate flexibility.
• The dram has appreciated due to improved external conditions and policy actions.
• The CBA has been strengthening monetary operations, communications, and modeling.

C. Financial Sector Policy

• The program focuses on implementing remaining recommendations from the 2012 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Update.
• The goal is to promote financial resilience and deepening.

D. Structural Reforms

• Business climate improvements, institutional strengthening, connectivity and competition enhancements, and private and foreign direct investment (FDI) promotion are central to the program.
• Energy sector reforms are emphasized to reduce risks and improve efficiency.
• Regional integration and public investment are seen as key drivers of growth and export expansion.

E. Program Modalities

• The arrangement provides access equivalent to SDR 82.21 million (89.4 percent of quota).
• The program is expected to support exit from Fund assistance once external conditions stabilize.
• The new mandatory funded pension system was launched in January 2014, but faces legal challenges.

Key Risks and Outlook

• Downside risks include a prolonged Russian slowdown, decline in remittances, and global financial volatility.
• Upward risks involve the resolution of geopolitical tensions and completion of large FDI projects.
• The external current account is expected to improve by 2 percent of GDP over 2014–17.
• Inflation is expected to return to the CBA’s target range of 4 ± 1.5 percent by end-2014.
• Energy costs remain a major concern due to the high food component in the CPI basket.

Supporting Documents

• Staff Report and Informational Annex were prepared for the Executive Board's consideration.
• Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director were issued.
• Letter of Intent (LOI), Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU) were included.
• Annexes cover topics such as Accession to the ECU, Risk Assessment Matrix, Reserve Metrics, Debt Sustainability Analysis, and Program Objectives.

Conclusion

The Armenian authorities seek continued support from the IMF to implement macroeconomic stabilization, fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms aimed at enhancing economic resilience, growth dynamics, and market access. The program is expected to contribute to long-term sustainability and inclusive growth, with a strong emphasis on regional integration, public investment, and reform of the energy and financial sectors.

Key Information

• Program Duration: 38 months
• Access: Equivalent to SDR 82.21 million (89.4 percent of quota)
• Key Achievements: Restored growth, reduced fiscal and external deficits, improved reserves
• Challenges: Volatility in growth and inflation, high dollarization, high poverty and unemployment
• Major Reforms: Pension system, tax administration, energy and transport sector improvements
• Support from the Fund: Staff supports the program, with a robust assessment of Armenia’s repayment capacity
• Public Participation: The program includes dialogue with the private sector, civil society, and international partners

Tables and Boxes

• Box 1: Details the Gas Price Agreement, including a new base price and a 30-year immunity clause.
• Box 2: Highlights tax revenue improvements and administrative challenges.
• Tables: Provide economic and financial indicators, balance of payments, monetary accounts, and debt sustainability analysis.

Final Notes

• The new program is seen as a continuation of the post-crisis transformation.
• Close cooperation with the IMF and other international partners is expected.
• Legal challenges and political considerations may affect the implementation of key reforms.