2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Latvia_First_Post_51页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Republic of Latvia: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions

Core Content

This document outlines the findings and recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding Latvia's First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions, held in Riga from May 7 to 15, 2012, and finalized on June 25, 2012. It includes a staff report, a Public Information Notice (PIN), and a statement by the Executive Director for Latvia. The report focuses on Latvia's economic recovery, fiscal and structural reforms, preparation for euro adoption, and external vulnerabilities.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Economic Recovery and Performance

Growth: Latvia's economy grew by 5.5% in 2011, the third fastest in the EU. In 2012, growth is projected at 3.5%, slightly higher than the Fifth Review's initial forecast.
Unemployment: Remains high at over 16%, with more than half of the unemployed having been out of work for over a year. However, employment is showing signs of improvement.
Inflation: Headline inflation in 2011 reached 4.2%, but has since declined to 2.3% in May 2012. It is projected to fall to 2.4% in 2012 and further in 2013, mainly due to a 1 percentage point VAT cut. Core inflation is expected to remain low due to negative output gap and high unemployment.
Budget Deficit: The deficit fell to 3.5% of GDP in 2011, well below the program target. It is projected to decline to about 2% of GDP in 2012, and the authorities aim for a 0.5% of GDP structural improvement in 2013.
Current Account: The deficit is expected to rise to 2.2% of GDP in 2012, driven by domestic investment and foreign bank profitability.

2. Euro Adoption as Exit Strategy

Euro adoption is the program's exit strategy, and the authorities remain committed to it despite recent Euro Area tensions.
The Maastricht criteria are seen as achievable, though the margin is tight.
Fiscal discipline is maintained through the Fiscal Responsibility Law and Fiscal Compact.
The Fifth Review and the current discussions emphasize the need for competitiveness and market flexibility to succeed in the eurozone.

3. Structural Reforms and Competitiveness

Latvia has made progress in decentralizing social assistance and improving competitiveness.
A Competitiveness Report has been commissioned, and the authorities are developing an action plan to implement its recommendations.
The staff recommends preserving budget discipline and deferring major tax or spending reforms to the annual budget cycle to avoid destabilizing the economy.

4. Fiscal Challenges and Risks

Spending pressures persist, including:
- Increased health spending
- Road maintenance and infrastructure needs
- Higher pension outlays due to early retirement options
- Additional spending by local governments
Tax cuts (VAT and PIT) are planned, but staff warns that pre-announced tax cuts without offsetting measures could undermine fiscal sustainability.
The Fiscal Compact and Sustainable Growth Pact (SGP) are key to maintaining structural budget balance.
The 2013 budget will be the first test of fiscal discipline outside the support program.

5. External Vulnerabilities

Capital outflows and deleveraging by foreign-owned banks are expected to continue, impacting international reserves.
Foreign-owned banks still have high loan-to-deposit ratios, which could be a risk.
Non-resident deposits are increasing in some banks, while Nordic banks are deleveraging.
Exchange rate appreciation is likely due to FX sales by the Treasury, which may affect export competitiveness.
Credit growth remains negative, and lending reluctance could limit economic recovery.

6. Market Access and Financial Sector

Latvia has successfully returned to international capital markets, issuing $1.5 billion in Eurobonds since mid-2011.
Credit default swap (CDS) spreads have declined to around 250 basis points in April 2012, but rebounded with the intensification of the Euro Area crisis.
The banking sector has improved, with profits rising and capital adequacy ratios (CAR) now at 18.1% (14.9% tier 1), well above the 8% regulatory minimum.

7. Staff Recommendations

Save revenue overperformance rather than use it for tax cuts or spending increases.
Avoid decentralizing social assistance funding, as it could weaken the social safety net.
Delay tax reforms until the annual budget cycle, where they can be fully assessed.
Focus on improving work incentives through tax-free thresholds, progressive taxation, and tax credits for new hires.
Wait for the results of a World Bank and DG Employment study before introducing significant reforms.

Key Figures and Tables

Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators, 2008-12
Table 2: Macroeconomic Framework, 2010-17
Table 3: General Government Operations, 2010-13
Table 4: Fiscal Balances and Debt, 2006-12
Table 5: Statement of Government Operations, 2010-13
Table 6: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2007-17
Table 7: Medium-Term Balance of Payments, 2010-17
Table 8: External Debt Dynamics, 2010-17
Table 9: External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2007-17
Table 10: Bank of Latvia Balance Sheet, 2008-12
Table 11: Monetary Survey, 2008-12
Table 12: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2007-12
Table 13: Indicators of Fund Credit, 2009-16
Table 14: Quarterly Projections
Figure 1: Real Sector, 2006-12
Figure 2: Inflation and the Labor Market, 2006-12
Figure 3: Fiscal Developments, 2007-12
Figure 4: Balance of Payments, 2006-12
Figure 5: International Reserves and Financial Market Developments, 2009-12
Figure 6: Banking Sector Developments, 2007-12
Figure 7: External Debt and Vulnerabilities in the Banking System

Conclusion

Latvia has made significant progress in economic recovery, fiscal consolidation, and returning to international capital markets. However, the country still faces external vulnerabilities, high unemployment, and structural challenges in maintaining fiscal discipline and inclusive growth. The IMF staff supports the euro adoption strategy but urges caution in implementing tax cuts and social assistance reforms without adequate offsetting measures and studies. The 2013 budget will be a crucial test of Latvia's ability to sustain budget balance and meet Maastricht criteria.