2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Equatorial_Guinea_First_Review_under_the_Staff_60页_1mb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 18/310: Republic of Equatorial Guinea

Core Content

The IMF Country Report No. 18/310 outlines the First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) with the Republic of Equatorial Guinea, conducted from July 2 to July 11, 2018. The report evaluates the program implementation, economic developments, and policy discussions during the period January 1 to July 31, 2018. It highlights the satisfactory performance of the program, despite ongoing economic and financial challenges.

Main Fiscal Objectives of the SMP

The SMP, approved in May 2018, has the following main fiscal objectives:

• Reduce the budget deficit through non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization and expenditure reduction, while protecting social spending.
• Address critical weaknesses in public financial management (PFM).
• Improve the business climate and foster economic diversification.
• Lay the groundwork for improved governance and transparency.
• Build capacity and establish a performance track record to support future Fund-supported programs.

Economic Context and Outlook

• Economic conditions remain difficult, with a secular decline in hydrocarbon output being the main factor affecting growth.
• GDP contraction in 2017 was 3.2%, a slowdown from 8.6% in 2016.
• Non-hydrocarbon sector shows signs of recovery, though overall growth outlook remains challenging.
• Inflation has remained subdued, at 1.6% y/y in June 2018, due to economic slack and low global inflation.
• Fiscal deficit narrowed significantly, with a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in April 2018, compared to a projected deficit of 1.3%.
• Government deposits at BEAC increased, and imputed reserves improved, but remain negative.
• External sector buffers are expected to rise due to a narrower current account deficit and continued FDI flows.

Program Implementation

• The program implementation for the first review was satisfactory, with all but one performance measure met.
• Non-resource tax revenue exceeded the program target, reaching CFAF 49 billion, while resource revenue also increased.
• Central government non-resource primary deficit narrowed to CFAF -273 billion, below the program ceiling of CFAF -300 billion.
• External arrears were slightly missed due to a logistical issue with the correspondent bank.
• Debt measures were met, with CFAF 70 billion in new external loans, below the CFAF 80 billion ceiling.
• The revised 2018 budget was approved late, in July, but has been used to guide fiscal policy.

Key Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation in 2018 continued with expenditure cuts and higher non-resource tax revenues.
• Non-priority spending is being reduced, including public investment.
• Fuel subsidies are increasing due to higher international fuel prices, and the authorities are urged to adjust local fuel prices to limit subsidies.
• Draft tax regulations are planned for early August 2018 to increase non-resource tax revenues.
• Administrative measures to reduce tax fraud and improve enforcement are being pursued.

B. Public Finance Management

• The PFM framework is being revamped with the devolution of budget implementation to the Ministry of Finance.
• Budget implementation procedures have been improved, including spending approvals and oversight mechanisms.
• Expenditure tracking and controls have been strengthened, with a budget committee reviewing all projects based on policy priorities.
• The authorities are encouraged to move toward multi-year budgeting for better fiscal management and discipline.

C. Protecting the Poor and Improving Social Indicators

• Expenditure is being reallocated toward social areas, including health, education, and housing in underserved regions.
• Social spending is aimed at improving living conditions and mitigating the impact of fiscal adjustments.
• Household budget surveys are recommended to improve data collection on poverty and social indicators, enabling better targeting of social protection measures.

D. Building Financial Sector Resilience

• Financial sector reforms are being pursued at the CEMAC regional level.
• The authorities support COBAC's action plan to address high non-performing loans (NPLs) and strengthen supervision.
• New provisioning rules are being implemented to improve bank resilience.
• Bank liquidity remains ample, but private sector deposits have declined due to foreign asset reductions.
• Non-performing loans have decreased, but remain high, with two-thirds linked to construction companies with government arrears.

E. Structural Reforms to Boost Non-Hydrocarbon Growth

• Structural reforms are aimed at economic diversification and non-hydrocarbon growth.
• Progress is being made, but delays exist, especially in governance and transparency.
• Non-hydrocarbon sector is expected to grow as confidence recovers and bank credit expands.

F. Improving Governance and Transparency

• The authorities remain committed to governance reforms and transparency improvements.
• Public sector governance is a key focus, with delays noted in some areas.
• Independent audits are planned to address domestic arrears, which are a major source of NPLs.
• Clearing arrears is seen as critical for financial stability and supporting economic recovery.

G. Capacity Building

• The IMF continues to provide technical assistance and training to support capacity-building efforts.
• The program is seen as an instrument for strengthening public finances and building a track record for future Fund-supported programs.
• Computerization of revenue and expenditure processes is encouraged to improve efficiency and monitoring.

Risks and Challenges

• Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, despite some positive developments.
• Financial sector vulnerabilities persist, with concerns about negative feedback loops between banks and the real economy.
• Systemic banking issues in other CEMAC countries could have spillover effects on public debt, confidence, and lending conditions.
• Capacity constraints and governance vulnerabilities could hinder the implementation of fiscal and structural reforms.

Conclusion

• The IMF supports the completion of the first review of the SMP, noting satisfactory performance.
• The authorities are urged to fully implement remaining measures to strengthen public finances, foster diversification, and improve governance and transparency.
• Sustained efforts are needed to ensure progress toward macroeconomic and financial stability, and to avoid delays in transitioning to a Fund-supported program.