2025-06-12-花旗集团-美国餐厅_美国宏观餐饮_通胀对可自由支配支出的影响逐渐减弱_12页_341kb

Citi Research: US Restaurants - Inflation's Impact On Discretionary Spend Slowly Waning

CITI'S TAKE

• Aggregate headline inflation increased slightly in May vs April, but core inflation (ex-food and energy) moderated, remaining flat YoY at 2.8%. Non-discretionary inflation was subdued month-over-month due to lower gas prices, offset by higher grocery, shelter and utilities costs.

Key Developments

• Restaurants experienced a narrowing YoY inflation gap relative to grocery prices (down 30bps to 1.6%). While grocery prices are stable (+3.4% YoY since Jan 2023), restaurant prices (FSR +4.2%, LSR +3.5%) saw seasonal gains from higher consumer resilience mid-2023 and 2024, but recent months show spreading moderating trends.
• The historically advantageous position of groceries over restaurant pricing (driven by cheaper commodities relative to wages) has allowed grocers to capture larger wallet share. However, this dynamic may be sustainably reversing.

Consumer Spending Analysis (Based on BLS data)

• Different income brackets feel inflation differently. While low-income consumers (<$30K) saw a YoY YoY improvement in overall spending power (+MSD%), wage growth was still insufficient to fully offset high YoY food/core inflation. Spending power for mid-income consumers ($30-$50K) improved further (+HSD%) and higher-income households saw strong improvements (+MSD%).
• Month-over-month, inflation slowed specifically in non-discretionary categories. The YoY impact on consumer budgets for the sub-$30K group led to $46/month higher monthly spending on non-discretionary goods versus May 2024.
• Groceries were still the most significant inflationary drag for lower-income households despite trends showing wages at least partially outpacing inflation for most income levels beginning April 2024.

Findings

• Lower-income consumers continue to face significant pressure from inflation on top of wage growth, though the immediate YoY drag has eased slightly from peak levels seen earlier in the year.
• The impact of inflation versus wage growth shows progress for nearly all income brackets, though low-income consumers are still experiencing lagging spending power (+MSD% change).
• For restaurants, the overall trend in discretionary spend suggests waning pressure, though the preceding strong performance during early-peak inflation periods was fueled by favorable wallet share dynamics.

Note: Dollar amounts and % changes (e.g. +MSD%, +HSD%, +LSD%) are specific references from the report data.