2025-06-13-花旗集团-美国餐厅_本周前瞻_自2019年以来的每单平均销售额（AUV）变化_18页_851kb

US Restaurant Industry Analysis Summary:
The Citi Research report examines changes in US restaurant industry stocks and Average Unit Volumes (AUVs) since 2019, highlighting the impact of COVID-19, inflation, and shifting consumer habits. Restaurant stocks underperformed the broader market due to macro/geopolitical events, while AUV dynamics showed significant brand-specific variations.

Key AUV Changes Since 2019:

• WING achieved 72% AUV growth with 79% store expansion and limited menu pricing.
• TXRH expanded its footprint by ~26% while AUVs grew 53%, with moderate pricing adjustments.
• FWRG and CMG saw over 40% AUV and footprint growth.
• MCD and DENN adopted "shrink to grow" strategies, reducing footprints while boosting AUVs by 36% and 11%, respectively.
• SG and DPZ experienced hindered growth due to expansion outside core markets and fortressing tactics, respectively.

Stock Sentiment and Performance:
Citi's tracker shows smaller, US-centric brands dominating the top 10 stocks, with full-service stocks underperforming. QSR brands saw mixed results, while EAT entered the top 10 and CBRL/TXHR exited or lagged. Inflation (~30% since 2019) influenced pricing, with high-frequency data indicating stable demand but rising input costs, particularly beef.

Main Drivers and Challenges:
AUVs are driven by development factors (e.g., new store geographies, portfolio optimization) and comp growth (traffic/ticket increases). Inflation and market shifts pressured some brands, while strategic adaptations enabled others.

Overall, the industry's evolution underscores the importance of strategic footprints and consumer-aligned growth for brand resilience.