2025-05-15-Jefferies-幸运strike（注Lucky_Strike暂未找到广为人知的官方中文名称_此处为字面翻译）（LUCK）_LUCK四月客流量小幅回升但仍处下降状态_10页_313kb

Company Update and Performance:

• Lucky Strike's April foot traffic showed a slight improvement compared to previous months, with a -2.5% YoY decline in 3-month rolling visits, but this remained negative amid a wider 2-year decline of -10.6%. Q3 revenue missed market expectations due to weaker corporate spending, and same-store comps declined consecutively.
• Management withdrew FY 2025 guidance due to macro uncertainty, citing improved summer pass sales as a potential driver for better performance.

Key Metrics and Trends:

• Foot traffic recovery continues, with comps showing slight improvements from prior quarters, but still below pre-pandemic levels.
• Financial highlights include projected EBITDA growth from $361M in 2024 to $446M by 2026, supported by new acquisitions and M&A activities.
• Current price target is $18 (up 97% from $9.16), reflecting a 11x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026; upside scenarios consider higher unit growth and gamification, while downside relates to wage inflation and macro risks.

Business Strategy:

• Company is converting underperforming centers to premium brand locations and executed key acquisitions, such as a family entertainment center in California.
• Focus on gamification and customer engagement aims to drive fixed cost leverage through operational efficiencies.

Valuation and Investment Thesis:

• Equity research recommends "Buy" with a $18 PT, emphasizing asymmetric risk/reward from strong industry positioning and growth opportunities.
• Risks highlight wage pressure, economic volatility, and acquisition challenges, while upside stems from continued industry consolidation and margin expansion.

Financial Overview:

• Revenue and EBITDA projections show steady growth expected through 2026, with historic valuation lows positioning shares favorably for potential upside, despite missed Q3 earnings.