2026-05-11-莱坊-Investment_market_Q1_2026_3页_680kb

Summary of the Investment Market in Poland (Q1 2026)

Core Content

The Polish commercial property investment market showed strong performance in Q1 2026, with a total investment volume of EUR 1.025 billion, marking a 44% year-on-year increase. This growth was observed across all major real estate sectors, with the industrial and retail sectors experiencing the most significant growth, particularly the industrial sector, which more than doubled its investment volume.

Main Sectors and Trends

• Industrial Sector:

  • Investment volume in Q1 2026 reached EUR 446.5 million, a twofold increase compared to the previous year.
  • The Raben portfolio was the largest transaction, with assets totaling over 170,000 sqm, acquired by W.P. Carey.
  • The sector is dominated by large portfolio transactions, with a preference for assets with long WAULT and strong tenant covenants.

• Retail Sector:

  • Investment volume in Q1 2026 was EUR 318 million, a 155% increase year-on-year.
  • The majority of the volume was concentrated in three large portfolio transactions, including second-generation shopping centres, Auchan hypermarket portfolio, and retail park portfolio, which accounted for 78% of total activity.
  • Liquidity remains strongest in smaller retail parks and convenience schemes, particularly in secondary and tertiary locations.
  • Repurposing activity is increasing, with Euro Styl acquiring Alfa Centre in Gdańsk for residential conversion.

• Office Sector:

  • Investment volume in Q1 2026 was EUR 248 million, a 35% increase year-on-year.
  • The Royal Wilanów acquisition in Warsaw by Wood & Company (Czech investor) accounted for 43% of total office volume.
  • Warsaw remained the core investment market, capturing 74% of total volume.
  • Regional cities saw two-thirds of transactions, with Brain Park A in Kraków acquired by a French fund (Arkéa REIM) being the largest regional deal.

• Hotel Sector:

  • The hotel sector remained marginal, with no activity recorded in Q1 2026.

Macroeconomic Context

• Poland's GDP growth reached 3.6% in 2025, and is forecasted to remain strong at 3.9% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, significantly outperforming the EU (1.1–1.5%) and Eurozone (1.1–1.3%).
• Competitive yields, market maturity, and rental growth prospects position Poland as an attractive investment destination.
• Prime yields are currently estimated at 6.25% for multi-let industrial assets, 6.25% for prime shopping centres, and 6% for prime office buildings. Yields are expected to remain stable, while capital values are projected to increase due to anticipated rental growth.

Capital Sources

• Foreign capital dominated investment activity in Q1 2026, with the United States contributing 32% of total volume.
• Hungary and the Czech Republic were the main sources of regional capital, accounting for 20% and 14%, respectively.
• Domestic capital accounted for 9%, mainly in small- and mid-sized transactions.
• Other countries such as Switzerland, France, and Sweden also contributed to the investment flow.

Market Outlook

• The market continues to attract a broad spectrum of capital, including core+, value-add, and opportunistic strategies.
• However, core strategies, typically associated with lowest cost of capital, remain limited.
• The shift in market structure towards industrial and retail is expected to continue, with office sector possibly regaining share in the coming quarters.

Key Information

• Total investment volume in Q1 2026: EUR 1.025 billion (+44% YoY).
• Industrial sector: 44% of total volume, up twofold YoY.
• Retail sector: 31% of total volume, 155% increase YoY.
• Office sector: 24% of total volume, 35% increase YoY.
• GDP growth forecast:
  • 2025: 3.6%
  • 2026: 3.9%
  • 2027: 2.9%
• Regional capital dominance: 44% of total investment volume in Q1 2026.
• Largest transaction: Raben portfolio sale to W.P. Carey.
• Largest regional deal: Brain Park A in Kraków acquired by Arkéa REIM.

Investment Strategies

• Core strategies: Limited in number, typically associated with lowest cost of capital.
• Value-add and opportunistic strategies: More prevalent in regional markets, focusing on repositioning, conversions, and pricing-sensitive investments.
• Liquidity: Strong in smaller retail parks and convenience schemes, but limited for prime shopping centres.

Conclusion

Poland's commercial property investment market remains resilient and attractive, driven by strong GDP growth, competitive yields, and favorable leasing fundamentals. The industrial and retail sectors are leading the growth, while office and hotel sectors are less active. The market is increasingly influenced by regional and foreign capital, with US investors playing a significant role. The future outlook is positive, with capital values projected to rise and rental growth anticipated.