中东和中亚经济展望-63页_2mb

报告摘要

Economic Outlook: Growth slowed to 2.0% in 2023 from 5.6% in 2022, driven by oil production cuts, tight policies, and regional conflicts. Inflation is declining but remains elevated in many countries. The balance of risks favors the downside due to potential global slowdown and geopolitical tensions, though upside risks include faster inflation easing and global demand growth.

Global Context: A slowdown is underway amid higher-for-longer interest rates, impacting commodity prices and global trade.
MENA Region (Middle East and North Africa): Growth projected at 2.0% for 2023, improving gradually. Inflation eased broadly, but issues like foreign currency shortages and droughts fuel pressures in some countries. Fiscal positions mixed, with many tightening budgets, though policy space is limited.
CCA Region (Caucasus and Central Asia): Growth at 4.6% in 2023, slowing due to normalizing inflows from Russia and structural challenges like low productivity and resource misallocation.
Key Risks: Upside risks include faster inflation decline and stronger global demand. Downside risks include China slowdown, conflict escalation (e.g., Ukraine, Sudan), and climate shocks.
Policy Focus: Maintain tight monetary and fiscal policies. Structural reforms to boost investment and resilience are critical for unlocking potential.

Diminished Policy Space: Emerging market economies face high debt and inflation, constraining fiscal and monetary flexibility.
Reform Gains: Governance, labor market, and regulatory reforms can significantly boost output and employment. First-generation reforms (e.g., governance and external sector) yield higher returns when sequenced strategically and packaged together.
Implementation: Challenges include political resistance and distributional impacts. Public support and effective communication are key to reform success. Reforms should balance inclusivity with economic stability goals.

Macmacrofinancial Risks: Banking systems resilient to standalone shocks but vulnerable under combined stress from higher rates, liquidity strains, and corporate defaults. Capital losses could limit lending and output.
Policy Recommendations: Strengthen macroprudential tools, address sovereign-bank nexus through capital surcharges, and enhance emergency liquidity support to mitigate systemic risks.

Growth prospects remain subdued amid resilience challenges and structural gaps. Urgent reforms are needed to foster sustainable growth, enhance job creation, and build resilience to external risks. Geoeconomic shifts and climate vulnerabilities add urgency to policy actions.

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