2022-01-30-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_ECB_Watch_–_inflation_risks_will_dominate_ECB_meeting_4页_223kb

ECB Meeting: Inflation Risks Dominate

ECB Watch – inflation risks will likely dominate the upcoming ECB meeting, with no expected policy changes as the council debated inflation forecasts. Key points:

• Meeting Focus: Inflation concerns persist due to diverging views between dovish (anticipating base effects and wage restraint) and hawkish (highlighting energy prices and supply issues) members. No clear policy decisions are expected given the December meeting's major tightening; instead, the press conference may offer early signals.

• Key Debates: Doves argue that January's inflation data, including a possible sharp drop in core inflation due to large base effects, and subdued wage growth, support a moderate inflation outlook. Hawks emphasize persistent energy prices above ECB assumptions and lingering supply bottlenecks, which could prolong inflation and lead to second-round wage effects.

• Policy Implications: While additional tightness may come through adjustments to TLTROs and the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) rather than rate hikes, the ECB's forward guidance suggests rates may not rise until asset purchases end. A 2023 rate hike seems a low but rising possibility if inflation persists.

• Outlook: New data may resolve debates by March, but structural disinflationary forces are expected to reassert later in the year, potentially delaying significant policy tightening beyond plans.