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Summary of North America Power & Utilities Equity Research Report (June 16, 2025)

Core Topic and Focus

This report analyzes the risks associated with securitizing prospective utility capital expenditure (Capex) in the U.S. regulated utilities sector. It examines four high-risk states—Hawaii, California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts—due to legislative efforts aimed at preserving affordability by restricting utility returns on investment. This has negatively impacted California utilities like PG&E, Sempra Energy, and Eversource, while other states face contagion risks from similar policies.

Securitization Explained

Securitization is a mechanism to spread out unrecovered costs over longer periods, reduce equity returns, and use state-cost debt, thereby lowering capital costs. Unlike traditional "cost of service" models with authorized returns on equity (ROE), this approach could affect future utility investments. Currently, securitizing productive spending like electrification and clean energy projects is uncommon and presents financial risks for utilities.

High-Risk States and Key Factors

• Highest Average Electric Retail Prices (2023): Hawaii (39¢/kWh), California (25¢), Connecticut (24¢), Massachusetts (23¢), leading to securitization efforts.
• Common Drivers: Clean energy ambitions, affordability concerns, and regulatory actions, with contagion spreading to states like Oregon and New York.
• Legislation: States have passed bills (e.g., California SB 254, Hawaii SB 897) to link Capex recovery to affordability, with investments in wildfire mitigation, advanced metering, and transmission under threat to shareholder returns.
• Focus States: Hawaii and California have implemented examples, including large-scale Capex filings with potential customer savings, but heightened risks for investor-owned utilities.

Investment Risks and Valuation

Utilities are at risk due to reduced capital cost of debt and mandated disclosures. Key companies:

• PG&E Corp (PCG): Rated BUY, focus on wildfire mitigation despite no rate-of-return.
• Sempra Energy (SRE): Rated HOLD in a downside scenario.
• Eversource Energy (ES): Rated UNDERPERFORM, with high exposure in rate states like Massachusetts.
• Hawaiian Electric (HE): Rated HOLD, grappling with affordability through securitization.
  Overall sector performance underperforms, driven by demand growth and rate base increases, but elevated risks include policy changes that might stifle innovation and growth.

Contagion and Broader Risks

Contagion poses a threat as similar securitization models spread to other states, enabled by regulatory sharing and industry conferences. Investors should monitor: (1) high customer bills; (2) clean energy plans outpacing customer affordability; (3) weakened utility cost capital; (4) bill inflation from rate base growth; and (5) consumer advocacy pressures. Abroad, states like New York and Oregon may experience challenges in financing clean energy without sustainable rate structures.

Affordability and Consumer Advocacy

While high rates are a factor, affordability—measured by utility bills relative to income—has a deeper impact. Data from the report shows varying wallet shares, with utilities like Hawaii Electric and Eversource having higher bills than income averages in key markets, increasing the appeal for securitization as a cost-control measure.

Headline Risks and Ratings

• Contagion risk: Could disrupt utility operations and investment strategies in other regions.
• Utility-specific risks: Wildfire mitigation and electrification spending may be constrained, and utilities lacking robust consumer protections face investor scrutiny.
• Ratings: Most utilities are rated Hold or Underperform, with a few receiving Buy (e.g., PG&E), highlighting selective investment opportunities tied to state regulatory changes and clean energy transitions.

Conclusion

This report underscores the divergent needs between investor returns and consumer affordability in power utilities, with securitization representing a tool for cost distribution that carries significant financial and regulatory risks for operators. Further state-level changes could intensify challenges, requiring investors to balance short-term risks with long-term sector growth.