2018-墨西哥汽车行业的下一个风口（英文版）-2mb

Summary of "Being prepared for the next Mexican automotive boom"

Core Content

The Mexican automotive industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing exports to the United States and other international markets. Vehicle production is projected to grow at a 9% CAGR until 2020, with a shift toward premium vehicles. However, the automotive parts industry is growing at a much slower rate (1% CAGR), creating a growing demand-supply gap. This gap is currently being filled by imports, which are becoming more expensive due to the devaluation of the Mexican peso.

Main Views

• Vehicle Production Growth:

  • Mexico's light vehicle production has grown at an 8.4% CAGR since 2010.
  • Expected to grow by 9% annually until 2020, driven by exports to non-NAFTA markets.
  • The premium segment is set to increase from 4% to 10% of total production by 2020, due to the entry of new premium brands like Audi, BMW, and Infiniti.

• Investment Trends:

  • Over USD 17 billion in investments are expected from new OEMs in the 2016-2020 period.
  • Existing OEMs are also investing significantly, with over USD 11.1 billion in planned investments.
  • These investments are expected to increase production capacity and support the shift toward premium vehicles.

• Supply Chain Challenges:

  • The current supply chain is not equipped to handle the shift in product mix and increased export demands.
  • There are significant gaps in technological capabilities and product offerings, especially in body, powertrain, and chassis components.
  • The lack of a strong Tier 2/3 supplier base and the concentration of suppliers in the northern region exacerbate the challenges.

Key Information

• Growth Disparity:

  • Vehicle production is growing at 9% CAGR, while auto parts production is only at 1%, leading to a USD 25 billion opportunity for domestic auto parts production by 2020.

• Import Dependency:

  • Over 70% of manufacturing processes are imported, increasing costs and supply chain risks.
  • The reliance on imports is due to a lack of local technological know-how and the concentration of suppliers in the North.

• Opportunities for Suppliers:

  • There is a significant opportunity for investment in advanced production processes such as aluminum die casting, hot forming, laser cutting, and high gloss painted parts.
  • The need for localized production of body, powertrain, and chassis parts presents a strategic opportunity for suppliers.

• Strategic Recommendations:

  • OEMs should develop an integrated and localized supply base to reduce dependency on imports.
  • Suppliers are encouraged to invest in optimal production footprints and fill the gaps in product offerings and technological capabilities.
  • A structured approach to site selection and supply chain adaptation is recommended to ensure seamless supply and cost efficiency.

Conclusion

The Mexican automotive industry is on the cusp of a significant transformation, marked by the entry of premium brands and the need for a more advanced and localized supply chain. While the industry has a strong foundation in Tier 1 supplier capabilities, it lacks the necessary technological infrastructure and supplier base at the Tier 2/3 level to support the new production demands. OEMs and suppliers must collaborate closely, invest in local capabilities, and adapt their strategies to ensure long-term competitiveness and supply chain resilience.