2007年-ECB欧洲央行_Eurosystem_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_4页_226kb

Eurosystem Staff Macroeconomic Projections Summary (2006-2009)

Core Content

The Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, based on data up to 23 November 2007, outline expected trends in GDP growth, inflation, and other key economic indicators for the years 2006 to 2009. These projections are grounded in technical assumptions about interest rates, oil and commodity prices, exchange rates, and fiscal policies.

Main Views and Key Information

1. GDP Growth Projections

• Euro area real GDP growth is expected to be:

  • 2007: 2.4% to 2.8%
  • 2008: 1.5% to 2.5%
  • 2009: 1.6% to 2.6%

• Private consumption is projected to grow in line with real disposable income, with a saving ratio remaining largely unchanged.

• Government consumption is expected to grow moderately over the projection horizon.

• Gross fixed capital formation (investment) is projected to grow:

  • 2007: 4.0% to 5.0%
  • 2008: 0.9% to 3.9%
  • 2009: 0.7% to 3.9%

• Exports are expected to grow:

  • 2007: 4.6% to 7.4%
  • 2008: 3.5% to 6.7%
  • 2009: 3.9% to 7.1%

• Imports are expected to grow slightly below exports:

  • 2007: 4.0% to 6.6%
  • 2008: 3.3% to 6.7%
  • 2009: 3.6% to 7.0%

• Net trade is expected to contribute slightly positively to GDP growth over the projection period.

2. Price and Inflation Projections

• HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation is projected to be:

  • 2007: 2.0% to 2.2%
  • 2008: 2.0% to 3.0%
  • 2009: 1.2% to 2.4%

• Inflation pressures are driven by:

  • Rising food and energy prices
  • Higher indirect taxes and administered prices
  • Stronger wage growth compared to previous years
  • Slower productivity growth, which limits the impact of higher unit labour costs

• Oil prices are assumed to follow a specific path:

  • 2007: USD 72.6 per barrel
  • 2008: USD 88.6 per barrel
  • 2009: USD 83.7 per barrel

• Non-energy commodity prices are expected to rise at an average annual rate of:

  • 2007: 18.1%
  • 2008: 8.9%
  • 2009: 4.5%

3. Exchange Rate Assumptions

• Bilateral exchange rates are assumed to remain unchanged at the average levels prevailing in the two-week period ending on 23 November 2007.
• EUR/USD exchange rate is assumed to be 1.46.
• Effective exchange rate of the euro is expected to be:
  • 3.8% higher in 2007 than the average for 2006
  • 2.6% higher in 2008 and 2009 than the average for 2007

4. Fiscal Policy Assumptions

• Based on national budget plans that have been approved or detailed by governments and are likely to pass legislative processes.
• Includes all policy measures that have already been approved by national parliaments.

5. International Economic Environment

• Global growth outside the euro area is expected to moderate, averaging:
  • 2007: 5.6%
  • 2008 and 2009: 5.2%
• Euro area export markets are projected to grow:
  • 2007: 6.0%
  • 2008: 6.9%
  • 2009: 7.1%

6. Comparison with September 2007 Projections

• Real GDP growth for 2007 is within the upper part of the September 2007 range.
• 2008 GDP growth has been adjusted downwards due to higher energy and food prices and a stronger euro.
• HICP inflation for 2007 and 2008 has been shifted upwards, mainly due to higher energy and food prices.

7. Comparison with Other Forecasts

• All forecasts fall within the Eurosystem staff ranges.
• Differences in working-day adjustment methods affect comparability between forecasts.

8. Notes on Data Adjustments

• The Eurosystem staff and OECD use working-day-adjusted GDP growth rates.
• The European Commission and IMF use non-working-day-adjusted rates.
• Slovenia is included from 2007 onwards in HICP data, while Cyprus and Malta are included from 2008 onwards in GDP projections. Their weights are approximately:
  • Cyprus: 0.2%
  • Malta: 0.1%
  • Slovenia: 0.3%