【牛津经济研究院】全球阀门和执行器市场展望-2024.11_25页_1mb

Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook 2024 provides a detailed analysis of the market performance and future projections for valves and actuators across major global regions and end-use sectors. The report is prepared by Oxford Economics for the British Valve and Actuator Association (BVAA), offering insights into market dynamics influenced by macroeconomic trends, industrial activity, and sector-specific developments.

Market Recovery and Growth Projections

The global valves market showed a slow recovery in 2023, expanding by 4.2% to reach $85 billion, while the small actuator market grew at a similar pace. The weaker-than-expected performance in 2022 was due to inflationary pressures, with a 14% increase in PPI (Producer Price Index) in that year. However, with inflation easing, the market is expected to align more closely with underlying economic growth.

Global Forecasts (2024-2025)

• Valves Market: Expected to grow by 3.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
• Actuator Market: Anticipated to grow at a similar pace as the valves market, 3.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.

The report highlights that the global economy is expected to grow at 2.7% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, with monetary policy gradually loosening. However, central banks are expected to be cautious in cutting interest rates, which will slow the recovery in industrial activity.

Regional Market Analysis

North America

• Strongest growth in 2024, with US demand expected to rise by 5.5%.
• The region is forecasted to grow by 4.5% in 2024, driven by non-residential construction and resilient industrial activity.

Europe

• Expected to grow at a slower pace, 2.8% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
• Weakness in the industrial sector and price corrections are key factors affecting growth.

Asia Pacific

• Projected to grow by 3.9% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025.
• China is expected to grow by 3% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, though construction weakness and government stimulus uncertainty may limit growth.
• India is a key driver of regional growth, with a 10.8% increase in valve demand in 2024 and 9.1% in 2025.

Middle East & Africa

• Expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024, though Saudi Arabia is projected to decline by 2.3% due to oil production cuts.

South America

• Growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2024, though country-specific variations may occur.

Key Sectors Driving Demand

The valves and actuators market is closely tied to the performance of end-use sectors, with the following being particularly important:

• Oil and Gas: Stronger-than-expected production from non-OPEC+ countries, while OPEC production remains weak.
• Chemicals: Expected to benefit from the end of the destabilizing cycle and lower interest rates.
• Power Generation: The upturn in industrial activity is expected to support growth.
• Construction: The non-residential segment is expected to drive growth, while residential construction remains weak.
• Shipbuilding and Rail: The sector is expected to recover in 2024 with 7.4% growth, driven by increased orders and technological advancements such as LNG and LPG carriers in South Korea and military modernisation in China. The use of LNG in rail and shipbuilding is expected to improve efficiency and reduce emissions.

Methodology and Definitions

Market Size Definition

• Market size is calculated as: domestic production - exports + imports.
• Figures are expressed in nominal terms and converted to US dollars using current-year exchange rates.

Valve Types

• Valves are classified using HS codes, with the following categories:
  • Total Valves: HS Code 8481
  • Pressure-reducing valves: HS Code 848110
  • Check valves: HS Code 848130
  • Safety/Relief valves: HS Code 848140
  • Other valves: HS Code 848180
  • Valve parts: HS Code 848190 (excluded from the valve market in this report)

Actuator Types

• Actuators are not classified separately in trade data, so the report uses a methodological approach to estimate consumption by including them within the "other" valve category.
• Actuators are further split into electric, hydraulic, and pneumatic based on product codes:
  • Electric actuators: HS Codes 850110, 850131, 850140
  • Hydraulic actuators: HS Codes 841221, 841229
  • Pneumatic actuators: HS Codes 841239, 841280, 841231

End-use Sector Classification

The report uses NACE revision 2 for end-use market classification, which aligns with ISIC revision 4 and is very close to NAICS classification.

• Oil, Gas, and Refining: Includes crude petroleum production, oil extraction, and refined products.
• Chemicals: Encompasses basic chemicals, fertilisers, paints, soaps, and other chemicals.
• Power Generation: Includes electric power generation and distribution.
• Water and Wastewater: Covers agriculture, utilities, and construction.
• General Industry: Includes extraction, food and beverages, textiles, pulp and paper, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastics, basic metals, and transport equipment.

Key Risks and Challenges

• Inflationary pressures in 2022 did not materialize as expected.
• Industrial sector weakness, especially in Europe, continues to affect growth.
• Private consumption and investment in India are softening.
• Fiscal policy remains reactive and tightening.
• External demand is weak, and export performance is sluggish.
• Geopolitical risks, such as the Gaza conflict and Houthis' attacks, are disrupting Red Sea shipping, affecting long-term outlooks.
• Military corruption in China poses a threat to sustainable growth in the shipbuilding and rail sector.

Conclusion

Despite challenges, the valve and actuator markets are expected to recover gradually over the coming years, with Asia Pacific and India leading the way. Technological advancements and policy shifts will play a critical role in shaping future demand, particularly in the shipbuilding and rail sector. The report underscores the importance of monetary policy and fiscal conditions in influencing market growth and sector performance.