20180820-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_516kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Key Index Performance (Aug 20, 2018)

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	0.4	-3.6	-9.0	36.5	11.1	11.1	10.0
HSCEI	0.3	-1.6	-10.2	15.5	10.6	7.6	6.9
MXCN	0.7	-7.2	-11.9	46.2	15.9	11.9	10.3
SHSZ300	-1.4	-7.5	-19.9	34.3	15.4	10.9	9.4
SHCOMP	-1.3	-5.7	-19.3	37.7	13.7	10.7	9.4
SZCOMP	-1.7	-9.5	-24.1	73.0	21.8	16.0	13.2
INDU	0.4	2.4	3.8	43.8	9.1	16.5	15.1
SPX	0.3	1.7	6.6	48.3	10.3	17.6	16.0
CCMP	0.1	0.0	13.2	84.4	16.4	23.3	20.0
UKX	0.0	-1.6	-1.7	174.3	7.8	13.4	12.5
NKY	0.0	-1.9	-2.2	64.6	13.1	15.9	14.1

Hong Kong ADRs Performance

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	337.0	3.44	44.1	3.37
1398 ICBC	5.6	0.36	14.4	0.80
939 CCB	6.8	0.59	17.5	1.36
857 PETROCHINA	5.7	-0.52	73.3	0.73
941 CHINA MOBILE	73.3	1.10	47.2	1.92
5 HSBC	70.1	-0.07	44.9	-0.35
2318 PING AN	68.7	0.37	31.0	4.28
3988 BANK OF CHINA	3.5	0.57	5.8	1.40
386 SINOPEC	7.2	0.28	28.4	1.48
1299 AIA	65.9	0.46	8.2	-7.63

A-Share Market Analysis

Non-Ferrous Metals: Magnesium

Price Trends: Magnesium prices have been rising since early May. As of Aug 8, domestic magnesium ingot prices increased by 18.8% to Rmb18,050/tonne, while magnesium alloys rose by 11.6% to Rmb18,800/tonne.
Market Drivers: The price increase is mainly attributed to domestic environmental checks and maintenance this summer, which reduced raw magnesium output.
Supply Shortage: China's primary magnesium production is expected to face a supply shortage of 273k/193k/10k tonnes in 2018/19/20, with global shortages also expected.
Demand Drivers: The automotive industry is a major driver of magnesium demand, with 75% of magnesium alloy demand coming from this sector. The trend towards lighter vehicles is expected to increase demand for magnesium alloys.
Stock Pick: Yunhai Special Metals (002182 CH) is highlighted as a leader in the magnesium alloy industry, with a complete industrial chain and significant dolomite resources.

Electronics: Security Surveillance Sector

Sector Development: The security surveillance industry is evolving through stages including simulation, digital, network HD, and intelligent surveillance.
Technological Innovations: Upstream technological innovations and cost savings in algorithms, chips, and components are seen as the foundation for sustainable development.
Intelligentization: The industry is undergoing a new phase of intelligentization, driven by deep learning algorithms, face recognition, vehicle identification, and behavior recognition.
Cost Reduction: The use of special chips instead of general ones is expected to significantly reduce costs of intelligent surveillance equipment.
Investment Highlights: Companies like Hikvision Digital Technology (002415 CH), Dahua Technology (002236 CH), and Fullhan Microelectronics (300613 CH) are recommended for investment.
Risks: De-leveraging policies may affect domestic demand, and China-US trade disputes could challenge overseas market expansion.

Rating Definitions

Company Ratings:
- Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%
- Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%
- Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
- Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%
Sector Ratings:
- Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
- Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
- Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Disclaimer

This report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or a recommendation for investment. The information, opinions, and forecasts are based on current views as of the date of the report and may change without notice. GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of the materials presented in this report. Investors are advised to consult professional advice before making investment decisions.

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