2007年-世界发展银行全球_Lao_PDR_Economic_Monitor_November_2007_58页_889kb

Lao PDR Economic Monitor Summary

Core Content

The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is one of the poorest countries in East Asia, with a per capita income of US$500 in 2006 and classified as a Least Developed Country (LDC) by the UN. Despite this, significant progress in poverty reduction has been made over the last decade, with the poverty headcount ratio falling from 46% in 1992/93 to 33.5% in 2002/03. However, social indicators remain among the worst in the region, and data measurement quality is low.

The Lao economy has shown strong growth, with real GDP increasing at an average rate of 6.3% from 1990 to 2000, and 6.3% again from 2001 to 2005, even after a sharp decline during the 1997-1999 regional crisis. In 2006, GDP growth reached 7.6%, and is projected to remain above 7% in 2007. This growth is driven by both resource and non-resource sectors, with the latter expected to contribute more in 2007.

Main Economic Indicators

• Population: ~5.7 million (2006)
• Land Area: 236,800 km²
• GDP Growth (2006): 7.6%
• GNI per Capita (2006): US$500
• GNI per Capita (PPP, 2006): ~2,050 international $
• Inflation (2007, avg): ~4.1%
• Exchange Rate (2007, October):
  • 9,597 kip per 1 USD
  • ~283 kip per 1 Thai Baht
• Budget Deficit (2006/07): Expected to decline to 1.3%
• Gross International Reserves (2007): ~3.6 months of non-resource imports

Key Economic Developments

• Growth Drivers: The hydropower and mining sectors have been major contributors to GDP growth, although their share is expected to decrease slightly in 2007.
• Non-Resource Growth: Manufacturing, agriculture, and services are projected to grow faster in 2007, contributing around 5.1% to GDP growth.
• Fiscal Performance: Government revenue as a share of GDP increased from 11.4% in 2004/05 to 12.7% in 2005/06, and is expected to reach 13.2% in 2006/07.
• Poverty Reduction Strategy: The National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy (NGPES) was finalized in 2004 and upgraded to the National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for 2006–2010. The NSEDP emphasizes human development, competitiveness, trade, social development, and good governance.
• Progress in Implementation: The government reported on progress made in 2007, including preventing the spread of avian flu, completing infrastructure projects, and providing clean water to 70% of the population. However, the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework for the NSEDP requires strengthening.

Key Reforms

• Public Expenditure Management (PEM): The Public Expenditure Management Strengthening Program (PEMSP) is ongoing, with restructuring of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to support the new Budget Law.
• State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Reform: Phase 1, 2, and 3 of SOE restructuring are underway, though with some delays.
• Trade and Private Sector Development: Reforms are accelerating, with the government preparing for WTO accession and implementing the Enterprise Law. A new SME development strategy was approved in August 2007.
• Financial Sector Reform: The government has approved a draft Presidential Decree Law on foreign exchange and precious metals management, which will be submitted to the National Assembly in December 2007.
• Legal and Institutional Reforms: A new State Audit Law was adopted by the National Assembly, and the Accounting Law was also passed in June 2007.

Donor Activities

• Donor coordination and aid effectiveness are improving, following the signing of the Vientiane Declaration on Aid Effectiveness.
• A new round of donor roundtable meetings (RTM) was scheduled for early November 2007.
• Donors have supported various reform areas, including public sector governance, trade, financial sector, and private sector development.

Challenges and Risks

• Inflation Risk: Although inflation has remained low, it may rise due to increased domestic assets and fuel price changes.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: The Lao kip has appreciated slightly against the USD but depreciated significantly against the Thai baht.
• Dependency on Natural Resources: Economic growth is increasingly reliant on volatile commodity prices, which could hinder development in other sectors.
• Implementation Gaps: While reforms are progressing, they have lagged behind legal frameworks in some areas.

Conclusion

Lao PDR has maintained a strong macroeconomic performance, with continued poverty reduction and growth in key sectors. However, the country faces challenges in managing resource dependency, inflationary pressures, and ensuring effective implementation of its reform agenda. Donor support and coordination are playing an important role in advancing these reforms, and the government is working to strengthen its institutional and legal frameworks to support sustainable development.