2010年-世界发展银行全球_Lao_PDR_Economic_Monitor_May_2010___Lao_PDR_Recent_Economic_Developments_16页_1mb

Lao PDR Economic Monitor - Mid-Year Update 2010

Core Content Summary

The Lao PDR Economic Monitor - Mid-Year Update 2010 provides an overview of recent economic developments and medium-term outlook for the country. It is prepared by the World Bank Office in Vientiane and includes contributions from various economists and analysts.

Main Economic Developments

1. GDP Growth and Inflation

• Real GDP Growth: Increased from 7% in 2009 to 7.8% in 2010, driven by the resource sectors, particularly the Nam Theun 2 (NT2) hydropower project.

  • Sectoral Contributions:
    • Power sector (NT2): 3.3 percentage points (mainly 3 percentage points from NT2)
    • Agriculture: 0.9 percentage points
    • Mining: 0.4 percentage points
    • Construction: 0.4 percentage points
    • Manufacturing: 0.8 percentage points
    • Services (tourism, retail, finance, transport): 1.7 percentage points

• Real GNI Growth: Slowed to nearly 6% in 2010 from 9.5% in 2009 due to significant outflows from resource sectors (profit repatriation and interest payments).

• Inflation: Rose to 4.8% in April 2010 from 1.5% in November 2009, mainly due to:

  • Energy prices: 2 percentage points
  • Food prices: 1.6 percentage points
  • Core prices: 1.2 percentage points

• Projected Inflation: Around 5% for the year 2010, up from 0.1% in 2009.

Government Revenue and Expenditure

• Revenue Collection: Reached nearly 50% of the annual target by March 2010.
• Expenditure Implementation: Around 44% of the annual plan by the same period.
• Budget Deficit: Expected to decrease to 4.5% of GDP in FY2010 from 6.8% in FY2009.
• Revenue Sources:
  • Increased domestic taxes
  • VAT implementation
  • Contributions from mining and NT2 projects
• Expenditure Breakdown:
  • Current expenditure: Projected to decline to 10.5% of GDP from 11.2% in FY09
  • Capital expenditure: Expected to increase to 11.7% of GDP in FY2010 (with non-project grants) from 10.9% in FY09
  • Off-budget spending: Projected to drop to 2.8% of GDP from 3.9% in FY09

External Balance

• Exports: Expected to grow by over 30% in 2010, reaching $1.9 billion from $1.5 billion in 2009.
  • Key Drivers: Electricity exports (NT2), mineral exports (copper, gold, etc.), and non-resource exports (garments, agriculture).
  • Garment Exports: Projected to rebound to over $200 million due to increased EU orders.
• Imports: Projected to rise by over 15% in 2010.
  • Capital Goods and Raw Materials: Expected to increase due to export growth and infrastructure projects.
  • Consumer Goods: Continued growth due to increased demand.
• Current Account Deficit: Projected to decline from 10.6% of GDP in 2009 to 7.7% in 2010, supported by strong export growth.
• Capital Account Surplus: Expected to decrease slightly to 10.1% of GDP in 2010 from 10.6% in 2009.
• Overall Balance: Likely to turn into a surplus of about 2.4% of GDP in 2010.

Monetary Sector

• Exchange Rate: The kip appreciated by 2.1% against the US dollar and 0.9% against the baht in April 2010.
  • BOL allowed the kip to appreciate after maintaining a de facto peg in 2009 and early 2010.
• Net Foreign Assets: Declined by 25% in 2009 and 23% by March 2010 due to rapid credit expansion and import growth.
• Gross Official Reserves: Remained stable at about $635 million during Oct 2009–Mar 2010, supported by IMF SDR allocations and foreign currency denominated bond issues.
• Credit Growth: Increased by 90% in 2009 and during the first quarter of 2010, but is expected to slow by end-2010.
  • Sources of Credit Growth:
    • 21.9 percentage points from lending to SOEs
    • 68.6 percentage points from lending to the private sector
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Declined due to rapid credit growth, but risks remain due to relaxed bank supervision.
• Broad Money (M2): Grew by 31.2% in 2009 and is expected to slow to 28.2% by end-2010.
• Interest Spread: Reduced to 5% in 2009, with the cost of borrowing from the banking sector declining by 8 percentage points since 2002.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• FDI Recovery: After a 23% decline in 2009, FDI is projected to recover by 5.7% in 2010, reaching $790 million.
• FDI Focus:
  • Resource Sectors: Mining (Sepon and Phubia projects), hydropower (NT2 and Hongsa Lignite Power Plant)
  • Non-Resource Sectors: Processing industries, construction, and services (tourism, trade)
• FDI Drivers: Recovery in regional and global demand, especially from China, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Global Economic Outlook (Annex 1)

• Global Conditions:
  • World Output: Projected to grow at 3.9% in 2010, 4.3% in 2011, and 4.5% in 2014.
  • World Trade Volume: Expected to grow at 5.8% in 2010, 6.3% in 2011, and 6.4% in 2014.
• Commodity Prices:
  • Non-oil commodities: Up 5.8% in 2010
  • Metals and minerals: Up 16.0% in 2010
  • Copper: Up 10.0% in 2010
• Regional Outlook:
  • China: Expected to grow at 9.0% in 2010, 9.5% in 2014
  • Thailand: Expected to grow at 3.7% in 2010, 6.0% in 2014

Rapid Enterprise Survey (Annex 2)

• Survey Conducted: In April 2010, covering 450 businesses in four major urban centers.
• Survey Results:
  • Sales Decline: Reduced from 40% in Q1 2009 to 23% in Q1 2010
  • Stable Performance: Increased from 16% to 49%
  • Sales Increase: Reduced from 44% to 28%
• Business Recovery: Indicates a positive trend in the corporate sector, with many firms recovering from the global crisis.

Key Information and Risks

• Fiscal Health: Improved with a decrease in budget deficit and increased revenue from domestic taxes and resource projects.
• Inflation Risks: Continued pressure from energy and food prices.
• Exchange Rate Policy: Shifted from a de facto peg to appreciation to combat inflation.
• Credit Expansion: Led to a significant increase in broad money but also raised risks in the banking sector.
• Debt Profile: Remained elevated, with domestic debt increasing due to off-budget spending and BOL's quasi-fiscal activities.
• FDI Trends: Rebound in 2010, with focus on natural resources and infrastructure projects.

Conclusion

Lao PDR is experiencing a recovery in economic growth, primarily driven by the resource sectors, particularly NT2 hydropower. Inflation is on the rise, but the country is implementing measures to control it through exchange rate appreciation and improved fiscal management. The government's fiscal performance is on track, and the current account is expected to improve. However, risks remain in the banking sector due to relaxed supervision and high levels of non-performing loans. FDI is expected to rebound, supported by regional demand and new projects. Overall, the economy is showing signs of resilience and growth, but continued monitoring and policy adjustments are necessary for sustained development.