2006年-世界发展银行全球_Lao_PDR_Economic_Monitor_November_2006_54页_1mb

报告摘要

Lao PDR Economic Monitor Summary (November 2006)

Core Content

The Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is one of the poorest countries in East Asia, with a per capita income of US$460 in 2005 and classified as a Least Developed Country (LDC). Despite this, the country has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the past decade, with the poverty rate falling from 46% in 1992/93 to 33.5% in 2002/03. In 2006, the real GDP growth was 7.3%, slightly higher than the 7.0% in 2005, driven by foreign investment in mining and hydro-power, as well as increasing mineral exports. However, non-mining sectors like agriculture, tourism, and manufacturing are also showing improvement due to infrastructure development and regional economic growth.

The National Growth and Poverty Eradication Strategy (NGPES) was approved by the International Development Association (IDA) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2004 as the official Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Lao PDR. The National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP, 2006–2010), which is expected to succeed the NGPES, was finalized in July 2006 and shared with the National Assembly (NA). The NA approved the plan with some suggestions for changes, though the details of the proposed modifications are not fully disclosed. The NSEDP is expected to incorporate key poverty reduction principles and provide a structured approach to policy reform and public expenditure.

The NGPES is well integrated into the draft NSEDP, emphasizing participation, poverty focus, and results-orientation. The next step in the PRSP process is the Round Table Meeting (RTM) in late November 2006, where the final NSEDP will be presented, along with reports on budget execution and future estimates. The RTM will also address governance measures and private sector development.

Key Economic Indicators

Indicator	2005	East Asia & Pacific	Low-income Countries
Population (millions)	5.6	1,870	2,343
GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$)	460	1,420	510
GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions)	2.6	2,647	1,188
Poverty (% of population below national poverty line)	34	-	-
Urban population (% of total population)	27	42	31
Life expectancy at birth (years)	61	70	58
Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births)	70	29	79
Child malnutrition (% of children under 5)	40	12	43
Access to improved water source (% of population)	35	78	75
Literacy (% of population age 15+)	47	91	61
Gross primary enrollment (% of school-age population)	116	113	100
Male	124	114	105
Female	108	112	94

Economic Structure

Agriculture contributes ~45% of GDP and employs ~80% of the labor force.
Industry accounts for ~29% and services for ~26%.
The economy is landlocked, bordered by Thailand, Vietnam, Southern China, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
The NGPES is the key poverty reduction strategy, with the NSEDP (2006–2010) as its successor.

Macroeconomic Trends

Real GDP growth averaged 6.3% annually in the 1990s, with a sharp decline during the 1997–1999 regional crisis.
Inflation has remained in single digits (3.7% in October 2006), with a notable drop in recent months.
GDP growth in 2005 reached 7.0%, and is projected to increase to 7.3% in 2006.
Exports grew at ~15% annually in the 1990s, and in 2005, exports accounted for 27.2% of GDP.
The Nam Theun 2 hydro-power project has secured US$1,450 million in financing, with ~US$1,250 million allocated for project costs and ~US$200 million for contingency.

Structural Reforms

The "New Economic Mechanism" (NEM) was introduced in 1986 to transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy.
Reforms in public expenditure management, banking, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), trade, and the private sector have been ongoing.
Public expenditure management has gained momentum, with efforts to increase transparency and accountability in the SOE sector.
The NGPES has been implemented with a focus on policy reform and public expenditure programs to achieve poverty reduction goals.

Donor Activities

Donor support for policy reform has increased, alongside continued support for health and education.
Budget support is on the rise, with JBIC and EC joining PRSO co-financing.
Multi-donor trust funds (MDTFs) are being established in key reform areas, complementing technical assistance.
The Government of Lao PDR (GOL) is seeking greater donor coordination and harmonization of foreign assistance to support poverty reduction and development.

Next Steps

The Round Table Meeting (RTM) is scheduled for 28–29 November 2006, where the final NSEDP will be presented, along with budget execution reports and estimated budgets.
The Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) will be prepared by World Bank and IMF staff to provide feedback on the NSEDP as the new PRSP.
The CPI (Committee for Planning and Investment) is working on capacity building to link planning and budgeting with the NSEDP and improve the alignment of public expenditures with poverty reduction priorities.

Conclusion

Lao PDR has made significant strides in poverty reduction and economic growth over the past decade, supported by foreign investment, structural reforms, and donor assistance. The NGPES has served as a foundational strategy, and its successor, the NSEDP (2006–2010), is expected to further integrate poverty reduction into the national development plan. Continued reform efforts, fiscal discipline, and donor coordination are essential to sustaining this progress and achieving long-term macroeconomic stability and poverty alleviation.