20160510-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_15页_544kb
报告摘要
China Brokers Summary
Core Content
In April 2016, the China brokers sector experienced a significant decline in revenues and net profit after the year (NPAT). The aggregated revenues and NPAT of 19 brokers fell by 48% MoM and 58% MoM, respectively. This decline was primarily attributed to the bond market correction, with the CSI Aggregate Bond Index dropping 0.74% MoM, and the A-share market remaining subdued, as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.2% and 3.0% MoM. The average daily turnover slightly dropped to RMB570 bn, and the margin financing and securities lending balance remained below RMB900 bn, closing at RMB859 bn.
Despite the overall negative NPAT growth, all China brokers recorded positive earnings, except for Northeast (000686 CH). The aggregated NPAT in April was RMB4.5 bn, down 58% MoM and 75% YoY, influenced by a high base effect, sluggish A-share market, and sharp decline in the bond market. Specific examples include:
- CITICS: NPAT declined by 64% MoM and 80% YoY to RMB590 mn.
- GFS: NPAT came in at RMB559 mn, down 21% MoM and 67% YoY.
- HTS: NPAT was RMB520 mn, down 55% MoM and 66% YoY.
Despite the challenging earnings outlook, the sector is still rated OVERWEIGHT due to its attractive valuation, with the sector trading at 1.23x FY16E P/B and 13.00x FY16E P/E, both close to 1 SD below the mean. HTS is recommended as the top pick within the sector.
Catalysts and Valuation
Positive catalysts for the sector include:
- A sustainable bull market for A-shares.
- An earlier-than-expected launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
- A surge in average daily turnover and margin financing balance.
The valuation is considered attractive, and the sector is re-rated OVERWEIGHT with HTS as the top recommendation.
US Nonfarm Payrolls
April 2016 US nonfarm payrolls came in at 160k, well below the consensus forecast of 208k (revised down), indicating a slowdown in job market growth. Key reasons for the weakness include:
- A loss of retail trade jobs (-3k).
- A decline in government jobs (-11k).
- Continued drop in mining jobs (-8k).
In contrast, professional and business services showed acceleration in job creation (65k), while financial and healthcare sectors remained relatively steady. The unemployment rate remained 5.0%, and the U6-headline unemployment rate gap narrowed to a recovery low of 4.7 ppt. Wage growth edged up slightly from 0.2% MoM to 0.3% MoM, and improved to 2.5% YoY.
The weakness in data further lowers the odds for a June rate hike, though the expected economic rebound keeps the rate hike window at July-September.
Investment Advice (Liquor Sector)
- Liquor sector stocks outperformed YTD due to strong Chinese New Year sales and positive results.
- Companies like Moutai (600519 CH) and Wuliangye (000858 CH) showed strong performance, with Moutai recording 17% revenue growth and Wuliangye exceeding 30% growth.
- The 2016E P/E of Chinese liquor stocks is still below 20x, indicating potential for further upside.
- Investment advice includes maintaining holdings and increasing positions in Moutai, Wuliangye, and Gujing, as well as initiating positions in third-liners such as JiuGui, Swellfun, and holding fundamentally sound stocks like Laojiao, Laobaigan, and Shunxin.
What to Watch
Economic Data
| Country/Region | Date | Event | Prior | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 2016/05/10 | FDI (YTD) | 1.50% | -- |
| China | 2016/05/10 | M2 Money Supply YY | 13.40% | 13.50% |
| China | 2016/05/10 | New Yuan Loans | 1,370.00bn | 900.00bn |
| China | 2016/05/10 | Outstanding Loan Growth | 14.70% | 14.80% |
| China | 2016/05/10 | PPI YY | -4.30% | -3.80% |
| China | 2016/05/10 | CPI YY | 2.30% | 2.40% |
| Germany | 2016/05/10 | Industrial Output MM | -0.50% | -0.40% |
| Germany | 2016/05/10 | Exports MM SA | 1.35% | -0.05% |
| Germany | 2016/05/10 | Imports MM SA | 0.40% | -0.50% |
| Germany | 2016/05/10 | Trade Balance, EUR, SA | 19.80bn | 20.40bn |
| US | 2016/05/11 | API weekly crude stocks | -- | -- |
| US | 2016/05/11 | EIA Weekly Crude Stocks | 2.78mn | -- |
| Euro zone | 2016/05/12 | Industrial Production YY | 0.80% | 1.10% |
| US | 2016/05/12 | Import Prices MM | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| US | 2016/05/12 | Export Prices MM | -- | -- |
| US | 2016/05/12 | Initial Jobless Claims | 274k | -- |
| Germany | 2016/05/13 | GDP Flash QQ | 0.30% | 0.60% |
| Euro zone | 2016/05/13 | GDP Flash Estimate QQ | 0.30% | 0.60% |
| US | 2016/05/13 | PPI Final Demand MM | -0.10% | 0.30% |
| US | 2016/05/13 | Core PPI Final Demand MM | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| US | 2016/05/13 | Retail Sales MM | -0.40% | 0.50% |
| China | 2016/05/14 | Urban investment (ytd)yy | 10.70% | 10.90% |
| China | 2016/05/14 | Industrial Output YY | 6.80% | 6.50% |
| China | 2016/05/14 | Retail Sales YY | 10.50% | 10.50% |
Company Events
| Date | Ticker | Company | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/05/10 | 0557 HK | City e-Solutions Ltd. | 1ST QTR RES (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 2324 HK | Capital VC Ltd. | INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 3839 HK | Chia Tai Enterprises International Ltd. | RES (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8018 HK | Finsoft Financial Investment Holdings Ltd. | RES/DIV (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8027 HK | KPM Holding Limited | 1ST QTR RES/INT DIV (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8081 HK | Interactive Entertainment China Cultural Technology Inv Ltd. | RES/DIV (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8089 HK | Chinese Strategic Holdings Ltd. | 1ST QTR RES/INT DIV (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8093 HK | Odella Leather Holdings Limited | RES/INT DIV (9-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8115 HK | Shanghai Qingpu Fire-Fighting Equipment Co. Ltd. - H Shares | QTR RES/DIV (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
| 2016/05/10 | 8117 HK | China Primary Energy Holdings Ltd. | 1ST QTR RES/INT DIV (3-MTH-END31/03/16) |
Research Coverage List
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Share Price (May 9) | 12-Month TP | % Upside | Market Cap (US$mn) | EPS 2015 | EPS 2016E | EPS 2017E | P/E 2015 | P/E 2016E | P/E 2017E | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliance China | 1114 HK | BUY | HK$7.4 | HK$8.2 | 11 | 4,817 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.84 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.8 | - |
| China ZhengTong Auto | 1728 HK | BUY | HK$3.0 | HK$3.5 | 17 | 855 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | - |
| Geely Automobile | 175 HK | BUY | HK$3.65 | HK$4.6 | 26 | 4,160 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | - |
| BAIC Motor | 1958 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$5.92 | HK$6.5 | 10 | 5,734 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.58 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 0.0 | - |
| Great Wall Motor | 2333 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$5.6 | HK$7.0 | 25 | 6,594 | 0.88 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 7.7 | - |
| Fuyao Glass | 3606 HK | BUY | HK$17.08 | HK$20.0 | 17 | 5,527 | 1.09 | 1.16 | 1.31 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 11.0 | - |
| China Harmony Auto | 3836 HK | BUY | HK$4.23 | HK$6.2 | 47 | 860 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 0.0 | - |
Key Takeaways
- The China brokers sector faced a significant decline in earnings due to bond market correction and weak A-share performance.
- Despite the downturn, the sector's valuation remains attractive, supporting an OVERWEIGHT rating.
- HTS is highlighted as the top pick within the sector.
- US nonfarm payrolls data was weaker than expected, reducing the likelihood of a June rate hike, but a recovery is expected, keeping the rate hike window at July-September.
- Liquor stocks showed strong performance, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Gujing recommended for investment.
- The research coverage list provides detailed financial insights and ratings for various sectors, including Auto, Oil & Gas, Property, Technology, and Consumer Staples.
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