2016年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Gas_demand_for_power_generation_peaked_as_early_as_2010_3页_183kb

Summary of Gas Demand for Power Generation

Core Content

The document discusses the historical and projected trends in natural gas demand for power generation within the European Union (EU), emphasizing the implications of long-term climate policy goals on the future of gas in the energy mix. It challenges the common belief that gas will continue to drive demand in the power sector, suggesting instead that gas demand for electricity generation may have already peaked in 2010.

Main Points

• Gas as a Cleaner Alternative: Natural gas is viewed as a cleaner fossil fuel compared to coal, with a lower carbon intensity. Modern gas-fired power stations emit less than 50% of the carbon dioxide of modern coal plants.

• Flexibility of Gas-Fired Units: Gas-fired power plants are flexible and can respond quickly to changes in supply and demand, making them a good complement to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which are intermittent.

• Historical Trends: In 2010, gas and coal each accounted for 24% of electricity generation. By 2014, gas had dropped to 17%, while coal increased to 27%, indicating a shift away from gas in favor of coal during that period.

• Projections for 2035:

  • ENTSOG-G's 'Green Transition' Scenario: Predicts gas demand for power generation to rise to 167–232 bcm by 2035.
  • Eurogas's 'Environmental Scenario': Projects gas demand to reach 230 bcm by 2035, assuming a shift towards more renewables and gas in the power mix.

• Climate Policy Constraints: The EU aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. This necessitates a significant decline in fossil fuel consumption, including gas, regardless of its role in balancing the grid.

• Role of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): CCS is considered a potential enabler for continued fossil fuel use in a low-carbon context. However, its current lack of technological maturity and economic viability makes it an uncertain factor.

• Gas Demand in Low-Carbon Scenarios:

  • With 24% CCS: Gas demand would not exceed 150 bcm by 2050, still below the 2010 peak.
  • With 7% CCS: Gas demand would decrease to 60 bcm by 2050, lower than the 2014 level.

• Alternative Flexibility Sources: The power system can be balanced using other flexible technologies such as hydro power and biomass, which are expected to account for 13–14% of installed capacity by 2050. These can compensate for the intermittency of renewables without relying heavily on gas.

• Implications for Overall Gas Demand: While the power sector was once a major driver of gas demand, it is no longer expected to significantly increase total consumption. The power sector's share of gas demand dropped from 30% in 2010 to 23% in 2014, with industry and residential/commercial consumers accounting for larger shares.

Key Information

• Gas Demand Peak: The analysis suggests that gas demand for power generation peaked in 2010, despite industry projections of future growth.

• EU Climate Objectives: Achieving the EU's 2050 GHG reduction targets requires a substantial decrease in fossil fuel use, including gas.

• Need for Storage and Demand Response: To support higher renewable penetration, the EU must develop better storage solutions and demand-side management strategies, reducing reliance on gas as a backup.

• Policy Considerations: The document calls for a reevaluation of gas demand projections by policymakers, highlighting the need for more realistic assumptions about the future role of gas in the energy system.

Conclusion

The document concludes that, given the EU's climate goals and the limited potential of CCS, gas demand for power generation is unlikely to increase significantly beyond 2010 levels. The power sector will not be a major driver of overall gas demand, and alternative technologies and demand-side responses will play a more critical role in balancing the grid in a low-carbon future.