2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Madagascar_Staff_90页_2mb

Summary of the Republic of Madagascar's Staff-Monitored Program and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (November 2015)

Core Content

The Republic of Madagascar requested a second disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of SDR 30.55 million (approximately US$42.1 million), following an initial disbursement in June 2014. This disbursement aims to address urgent balance of payments needs and is part of a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) covering the period from September 2015 to March 2016. The SMP is intended to guide policy implementation, develop local capacity, and build a stronger track record for potential future arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

The IMF Executive Board approved the disbursement, recognizing the Malagasy authorities' efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustainability in 2015 despite external shocks, political instability, and weak governance. The disbursement is expected to catalyze donor support and help meet the country's significant infrastructure and social development needs.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Developments and Policy Performance

• Economic Recovery: The modest recovery initiated in 2014 has not gained further momentum in 2015 due to falling commodity prices, weather-related shocks, and structural weaknesses. Growth is projected at 3.2 percent for 2015, with inflation at 7.9 percent.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit widened in 2015, driven by low tourism receipts, increased dividend outflows, and lower budget support grants. It is expected to grow further in the medium term due to increased infrastructure investment.
• Exchange Rate and Liquidity: The market exchange rate depreciated by 10.5 percent in nominal effective terms by end-August 2015. The central bank discontinued buyback operations in early September, leading to a more market-oriented exchange rate regime. Liquidity conditions have become tight for most banks due to a highly segmented financial system.
• Fiscal Policy: Revenues in 2015 stabilized at 9.9 percent of GDP, below initial projections. The authorities have implemented measures to improve revenue collection, including tax reforms, and have reduced transfers to loss-making state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and subsidies. However, fiscal performance remains constrained by structural issues and limited donor support.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank has taken steps to strengthen its operations, including recapitalization, legal framework revision, and liquidity management improvements. The reserve requirement was reduced from 15 percent to 13 percent, and the reference interest rate was lowered to 8.7 percent in October 2015.

Policy Commitments and Program Design

• Fiscal Space: The authorities aim to increase revenue collection and reduce inefficient spending to create more fiscal space for development priorities. This includes improving tax administration, reducing fuel subsidies, and addressing arrears.
• Central Bank Capacity: The central bank is being strengthened through legal reforms, recapitalization, and improved transparency in foreign exchange operations.
• Inclusive Growth: A new strategy for inclusive growth and poverty reduction is in place, with the National Development Plan (NDP) and the Presidential Plan of Urgent Action (PPUA) as key frameworks. The focus is on increasing public investment in infrastructure and social development, as well as improving the business climate to promote private sector-led growth.

Outlook and Challenges

• Growth and Stability: Economic growth is projected to rise to 4.3 percent in 2016, driven by a rebound in agriculture, a modest recovery in textile exports, and increased infrastructure investment. However, risks remain from implementation slippages, especially in fiscal policy and SOEs, as well as natural disasters linked to the El Niño weather pattern.
• Debt Sustainability: The Debt Sustainability Analysis highlights the need for increased revenue and external financing to meet development needs. The current level of international reserves is below optimal levels, with only about 2.5 months of import coverage.
• Reforms and Governance: The government has adopted a new anti-corruption strategy and is working to improve public financial management (PFM). The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is also underway to guide future Fund engagement.

Key Documents Included

• Press Release: Announced the approval of the RCF disbursement and the SMP.
• Staff Report: Outlines the economic context, policy performance, and the rationale for the disbursement.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis: Prepared by the IMF and World Bank, it assesses the country's ability to meet its debt obligations.
• Letter of Intent and Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies: Outline the policy commitments and the program's framework.
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding: Details the terms of the RCF disbursement and the SMP.

Program Risks and Capacity Building

• The program aims to build the capacity of the Malagasy authorities to implement reforms effectively and sustainably.
• The SMP is expected to help establish a stronger track record, which is essential for future ECF arrangements.
• The RCF disbursement is intended to support both the SMP and catalyze additional external financial assistance.

Conclusion

Madagascar's economic recovery remains sluggish, with significant challenges in balance of payments, fiscal sustainability, and structural reforms. The RCF disbursement and SMP are crucial in supporting the country's development goals and improving macroeconomic stability. Continued reform efforts, especially in fiscal policy, governance, and the financial sector, are necessary for long-term growth and poverty reduction.