2011年-世界发展银行全球_Timor_Leste_-_Expanding_Near-Term_Agricultural_Exports_-_Main_Report_151页_2mb

Summary of Report No. 61814-TP: Expanding Near-Term Agricultural Exports in Timor-Leste

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank as part of the Integrated Framework (IF), presents a Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) aimed at identifying constraints to expanding agricultural exports in Timor-Leste and recommending actions to enhance competitiveness and export potential in the short term.

Main Report Overview

Section I: Socio-Economic Setting, Macroeconomic Management, and International Trade

• Economic Performance and Poverty: The economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, which have driven growth since 2004. However, there is a need to diversify into non-oil exports to ensure long-term sustainability.
• Macroeconomic Management: The government has implemented sound fiscal policies, including the Petroleum Fund (PF), which ensures discipline in resource use. The PF has helped maintain macroeconomic stability, including low inflation and a competitive real effective exchange rate (REER).
• Trade Policy Regime: Timor-Leste has one of the most liberal trade policy regimes globally, which supports market access and reduces trade distortions.
• Trade Integration: Despite not being part of any multilateral or regional trade agreement, the country benefits from preferential treatment as an LDC. Joining ASEAN and pursuing WTO membership are recommended for greater integration.

Section II: Value Chain Analysis of Agricultural Exportables and Key Sectoral Constraints

• Agricultural Strategic Role: Agriculture employs 80% of the active population and is vital for poverty reduction and export growth.
• Subsectors with Export Potential:
  • Coffee: High potential for export growth and poverty reduction. With improved technology, gross margins could increase significantly.
  • Mungbean: Commercial export potential exists, though impact on poverty is limited. Recommendations include expanding extension services and linking with Indonesian buyers.
  • Cattle: High demand in Indonesia, with export earnings potentially reaching $4.5 million. Updating the livestock census and establishing abattoirs are suggested.

Section III: Cross-Cutting Constraints to Export Competitiveness

• Skills Deficit: A major constraint for productivity and growth. Training and vocational education are critical to addressing this gap.
• Land Access: Most rural land is under customary tenure, limiting formal investment and export potential. A new land law is under development to address this.
• Business Environment: Challenges include complex procedures for business registration and contract enforcement. Improving these areas is essential for attracting investment and enhancing competitiveness.

Section IV: Trade Facilitation

• Transportation and Infrastructure: Critical for export growth. Road transport, ports, and customs procedures need improvement.
• Customs Efficiency: Enhancing customs procedures and reducing non-tariff barriers (NTB) will improve trade facilitation and reduce costs.

Section V: Implementation

• Implementation Arrangements: The Integrated Framework National Steering Committee should be used to coordinate trade policy efforts.
• Pre-requisites for Success: Training civil servants, enacting the new Investment Law, and strengthening the capacity of Investe Timor-Leste are recommended.
• National Validation Process: A structured process is needed to ensure the recommendations align with national priorities.

Key Recommendations

• Coffee Sector:

  • Improve technology for coffee farmers to increase productivity and margins.
  • Rehabilitate coffee plantations and implement Integrated Pest Management (IPM).

• Mungbean Sector:

  • Expand donor programs and extension services to support mungbean farmers.
  • Establish links with Indonesian buyers to boost exports.

• Cattle Sector:

  • Update livestock census and evaluate abattoir options near Dili.
  • Promote commercial production and export opportunities.

• Horticulture:

  • While not a short-term priority, courses on safe pesticide use and cold chain investment are recommended for future potential.

• Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Certification:

  • Develop and implement a robust SPS system to meet international standards.
  • Address technical and financial challenges in establishing quarantine services.

• Skills Development:

  • Strengthen agricultural extension services and increase budget for research and training.
  • Promote Vocational Education and Training (VET) and on-the-job training.

• Land Access:

  • Reform land tenure systems to facilitate investment and export growth.
  • Support the development of a new land law that improves property rights.

• Business Environment:

  • Simplify business registration and licensing processes.
  • Improve contract enforcement and access to finance.

• Trade Facilitation:

  • Enhance transportation infrastructure and port efficiency.
  • Streamline customs procedures to reduce trade costs and delays.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of addressing structural and institutional constraints to enhance agricultural exports in Timor-Leste. By improving skills, land access, and the business environment, along with strengthening trade facilitation and SPS certification, the country can achieve sustainable export growth and reduce poverty. The recommendations are aligned with the Integrated Framework and national priorities, aiming to create a more competitive and integrated agricultural sector.