2011年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic___Agricultural_Policy_Update_Volume_2_Main_Report_147页_4mb

Kyrgyz Republic Agricultural Policy Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Kyrgyzstan's agricultural policy and public investment framework from 2003 to 2010, focusing on structural changes and sector performance. It outlines strategic objectives and evaluates the outcomes of past policies, while recommending future reforms to enhance the agricultural sector's sustainability, productivity, and contribution to economic growth.

Main Strategic Objectives

• Food provision and security
• Market stability and competitiveness
• Environmental preservation and food safety

The report emphasizes that food security is primarily a result of low rural incomes, not low food availability. Strategic goals should focus on raising rural incomes, protecting vulnerable consumers from price and supply shocks, increasing agricultural profitability, reducing risk, and addressing environmental degradation.

Key Policy and Investment Outcomes

Agricultural Output

• Agricultural growth was modest during 2003–09, but the policy and investment framework helped prevent output declines during several shocks, including the 2005 political crisis, 2007–08 droughts, and the 2010 ethnic conflict.

Agricultural Employment and Migration

• Agricultural employment declined after 2005, but labor productivity and wages increased. Migration out of the sector led to a slight recovery in productivity.

Farm Structure

• The structure of farms has evolved, with some shifts toward more efficient and diversified operations.

Labour Productivity and Wages

• Labour productivity and wages have increased, but this has been driven by migration out of the sector rather than productivity improvements.

Contribution to GDP

• Agriculture's contribution to GDP has declined, with real GDP growth averaging 2.27% per year compared to 5.06% for the overall economy.

Rural Poverty and Inequality

• Rural poverty decreased from 57% to 37% between 2003 and 2008, but regional disparities remain, especially in high-altitude areas.

Food Security

• Food insecurity remained high and relatively constant between 2006 and 2010. Vulnerable groups were affected by short-term price shocks, which were largely driven by international markets.

International Trade

• Kyrgyzstan experienced a net trade deficit in agricultural and food products due to increased imports of wheat, flour, and processed goods, while exports of fruit and vegetables to Russia and milk to Kazakhstan showed some growth.

Assessment of Policy and Public Investment Framework

Public Expenditure Trends

• Real public expenditure on agriculture declined by about 20% during the period, as did its contribution to GDP.
• Recurrent spending was stable but insufficient to support key services like irrigation and veterinary care.
• Investment spending shifted towards government involvement in private markets, including the creation of the Agricultural Finance Company (AFC), which diverted resources from essential infrastructure and public services.

Food Security Policy

• The 2008 Food Security Law aimed to improve monitoring, distribution, and price control, but actual market interventions were limited.
• The report recommends a cross-ministerial approach to food security policy, addressing emergency threats, short-term price shocks, and long-term income issues.
• Social safety nets are suggested as a more effective and affordable way to protect vulnerable groups during price shocks.

Land Market

• Land reform has largely been completed, with the establishment of the Land Reallocation Fund (LRF).
• The report suggests revisiting the rationale for maintaining the LRF, improving transparency in its operations, and lifting restrictions on land as collateral.

Agricultural Finance

• The government established Aiyl Bank, a successful agricultural finance institution, and nurtured the microfinance market.
• The credit market faces challenges such as high lender risk and limited access to funds. The report recommends increasing rural finance provision, promoting competition, and improving deposit-taking and risk management practices.

Irrigation and Drainage

• The on-farm irrigation system is now managed by water users, with increasing user contributions to operating costs.
• The report highlights the need for institutional reforms, removal of parliamentary restrictions on irrigation service fees, and infrastructure rehabilitation.

Mechanization

• Past investments in agricultural machinery have been limited, and mechanization remains low.
• The government should reduce involvement in machinery distribution and encourage private sector development.

Seeds and Input Supply

• A legislative framework for the seeds sector has been established.
• The report recommends ending government involvement in seeds and machinery distribution, encouraging private seed farms and dealers, and improving quality control and variety testing.

Rural Advisory Services and Research

• A national network of rural advisory services is in place and independent of single funding sources.
• The report suggests that while advisory services are becoming more independent, some short-term government funding may still be necessary for market information and support.

Pasture Management

• Pasture management has been transferred to communities, with efforts underway to establish long-term disease control programs and licensed private veterinarians.
• Further legal reforms and implementation of the Pasture Law are needed to improve management of pasture resources.

Veterinary Services

• The government has drafted strategies for animal disease control, with a focus on zoonotic diseases that threaten public health and international trade.
• More resources are needed to implement these strategies effectively.

Key Recommendations

• Complete long-term reforms to improve fiscal discipline, governance, and stability in the agricultural sector.
• Refocus public investment on increasing agricultural productivity rather than market interventions.
• Strengthen rural finance by promoting competition, increasing access to funds, and improving risk management.
• Reform irrigation and drainage systems through institutional changes and infrastructure rehabilitation.
• Encourage mechanization by reducing government involvement and promoting private sector participation.
• Improve seeds and input supply through commercial viability and quality control.
• Enhance rural advisory services and research with both public and private support.
• Implement the Pasture Law and improve pasture management frameworks.
• Increase social safety nets to protect vulnerable groups from price and supply shocks.
• Address budget deficits and ensure sustainable public expenditure.

Conclusion

Kyrgyzstan has made significant progress in agricultural reforms, but the sector remains vulnerable to short-term shocks and long-term structural challenges. To ensure sustainable growth, the government should return to its reform principles, focusing on fiscal discipline, improved governance, and long-term investments in productivity and infrastructure. The report also emphasizes the need for a Medium Term Development Strategy to rebuild rural communities and promote economic interdependence.