2003年-世界发展银行全球_A_Medium-Term_Macroeconomic_Strategy_for_Algeria___Sustaining_Faster_Growth_with_Economic_and_Social_Stability_Volume_1_Main_Report_113页_7mb

A Medium-Term Macroeconomic Strategy for Algeria: Sustaining Faster Growth with Economic and Social Stability

Executive Summary

This report outlines a two-pillar strategy for Algeria: securing fiscal sustainability and promoting a favorable investment climate to foster medium-term growth. Despite stabilization efforts since 1994 and favorable hydrocarbon prices, growth remains insufficient to reduce unemployment and poverty. The strategy emphasizes structural reforms and macroeconomic management to enable the private sector to lead growth, while insulating fiscal policy from the volatility of hydrocarbon revenues.

Core Content

Algeria has experienced a prolonged period of economic stagnation and volatility, primarily due to low oil prices, slow reforms, and a transition from a command economy to a market economy. The non-hydrocarbon sector has shown some recovery, but private investment remains weak. To achieve sustained growth, the report recommends:

• Completing the transition to the market through structural reforms, including privatization, public bank restructuring, and trade liberalization.
• Strengthening the fiscal framework to reduce volatility and ensure long-term sustainability, particularly through a multi-year, integrated fiscal policy.

Main Report Structure

Chapter 1: Factors of Long-Term Growth and Macroeconomic Volatility in Algeria

• Growth and macroeconomic volatility: Algeria's growth has been volatile, with a "growth boom" followed by a "growth bust".
• Long-term growth potential: Algeria's "missing long-term growth" is attributed to weak total factor productivity (TFP) and the impact of macroeconomic volatility.
• Policy challenges: Resuming growth requires improving the investment climate and enhancing productivity in the non-hydrocarbon sector.

Chapter 2: Sustaining Faster Medium-Term Growth in a Competitive Environment

• Transition to the market: Algeria needs to discipline the "old economy" (public enterprises) and promote the "new economy" (private sector).
• Privatization: Has been slow and incomplete, with significant constraints on resource efficiency.
• Investment climate: Must be improved to encourage private sector-led growth, including reducing administrative barriers and enhancing access to finance.
• Private sector development: Requires better access to productive inputs, such as industrial land and finance, and a supportive legal and governance framework.
• Labor market reforms: Needed to improve employment content of growth and enhance competitiveness.
• Competitiveness of non-hydrocarbon tradable sectors: Can be enhanced through productivity gains and export-oriented policies.

Chapter 3: Securing Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability

• Fiscal volatility: Algeria's fiscal policy is procyclical, exacerbating the impact of oil price fluctuations.
• Fiscal sustainability: Requires a multi-year fiscal framework, with clear targets for the primary non-hydrocarbon fiscal deficit.
• Asset and liability management: Necessary to secure fiscal sustainability and reduce the impact of hydrocarbon revenue volatility.
• Debt sustainability: A key concern, especially in the context of hydrocarbon revenue projections.
• Fiscal transparency: Must be improved to support better fiscal management and accountability.

Key Information

• GDP growth: From 1999 to 2002, GDP grew at 2.5% annually, while the non-hydrocarbon, non-agricultural sector grew at 2.9%.
• Unemployment: Remains high at 27% (2001), with a significant portion of the youth unemployed.
• TFP performance: Weak, with a decline since the late 1970s and negative growth in the 1980s and 1990s.
• Public sector inefficiency: Public enterprises have underperformed compared to private ones, contributing to low investment and productivity.
• Fiscal adjustment: A bold fiscal adjustment has been achieved, but more is needed to insulate fiscal policy from oil price volatility.
• Fiscal costs: Public bank bailouts have been costly, with a significant portion of GDP spent on cleaning up non-performing loans.
• Human capital: Education indicators lag behind regional averages, but there is an improving trend.
• Private sector potential: The private sector is more competitive and efficient, especially in light industries like textiles and footwear.

Main Recommendations

• Structural reforms:

  • Complete privatization and restructuring of public enterprises.
  • Reform public banks to improve efficiency and reduce non-performing loans.
  • Implement trade liberalization and reduce protectionism.
  • Improve access to finance and reduce administrative barriers for businesses.
  • Enhance labor market flexibility and competitiveness.

• Fiscal reforms:

  • Establish a multi-year, rules-based fiscal framework.
  • Set medium-term targets for the primary non-hydrocarbon fiscal deficit.
  • Implement active asset and liability management to secure fiscal sustainability.
  • Improve fiscal transparency and integrate fiscal policy with broader economic strategies.

• Human capital development:

  • Continue improving education and skills to support a more productive workforce.
  • Combine human capital improvements with structural reforms to maximize growth potential.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a coordinated approach to structural and macroeconomic reforms to achieve sustainable, faster growth and reduce unemployment and poverty in Algeria. It highlights the importance of a supportive investment climate and a stable fiscal framework in this endeavor.