2011年-世界发展银行全球_Armenia___Poverty_Update_Using_Revised_Poverty_Lines_34页_799kb

Summary of Report No. 63111-AM: Poverty Update Using Revised Poverty Lines

Core Content

This report provides an updated analysis of poverty in Armenia, focusing on two main objectives: revising the national poverty lines to reflect current consumption patterns and assessing the impact of the global recession on poverty incidence. The analysis is based on data from the 2009 Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS), and the revised poverty lines are derived from the same survey.

Main Objectives

1. Revising Poverty Lines: To update the national poverty lines using the 2009 ILCS data, ensuring they better reflect the current consumption and expenditure patterns.
2. Assessing Poverty Trends: To evaluate how the global recession affected poverty levels, particularly among vulnerable groups, and to examine the role of social protection programs in mitigating these effects.

Key Findings

• Poverty Lines:

  • The revised poverty lines are higher than the previous ones, reflecting changes in consumption patterns.
  • The Food Poverty Line (FPL) increased by 2%, the Lower Poverty Line by 8%, and the Upper Poverty Line by 19%.
  • The new poverty lines are expected to remain in effect until the next revision in 4-5 years.

• Poverty Incidence:

  • Poverty increased significantly from 2008 to 2009, rising from 27.6% to 34.1% based on the revised poverty line.
  • The increase was more pronounced in rural areas and among the poorest quintiles.
  • The poverty gap (the average shortfall of the poor from the poverty line) increased from 5.1% to 7.8%, and poverty severity (the average shortfall of the poor from the poverty line relative to the total population) rose from 1.4% to 2.4%.

• Economic Impact:

  • Armenia experienced a severe economic contraction in 2009, with real GDP declining by 14.6%, nearly three times the average in the ECA region.
  • The economy was heavily reliant on remittances and foreign direct investment (FDI), which declined sharply during the crisis.
  • The recovery started in 2010, with GDP growth of 2.2% in the first quarter and 8.8% between January and May.
  • Despite the macroeconomic recovery, the lingering effects of the recession continued to impact households, particularly the poor.

• Coping Strategies:

  • Households employed various coping mechanisms, including reduced food consumption, substitution of less expensive goods, reduced spending on medicines, and increased self-production of food.
  • About 45% of affected households reduced food consumption in 2009, but this decreased to 26% in 2010.
  • There was a noticeable increase in alcohol consumption, particularly in rural areas, likely due to rising unemployment and declining living standards.

• Social Protection:

  • The government's social spending programs, including pensions and the Family Benefit Program (FBP), played a critical role in mitigating the rise in poverty.
  • Without these programs, poverty incidence would have been significantly higher—43% in 2008 and 51.7% in 2009.
  • The FBP, in particular, was effective in targeting the most vulnerable populations and reducing poverty.

Implications

• The revised poverty lines are more reflective of current consumption patterns, which means the updated poverty measures are more accurate.
• The global recession had a disproportionate impact on the poor, especially in rural areas.
• Continued social protection measures are essential to prevent further increases in poverty and to support vulnerable households.
• The study underscores the importance of maintaining and strengthening social safety nets, particularly in times of economic uncertainty.

Methodology

• The poverty lines are calculated using a standard World Bank methodology, which includes both food and non-food components.
• The food poverty line is based on the minimum dietary requirements and the cost of a food basket that meets those needs.
• The lower and upper poverty lines are estimated using the consumption basket method (CBM) and the food expenditure method (FEM).
• The analysis uses data from the ILCS 2004, 2008, and 2009 to ensure consistency and comparability across time periods.

Data Sources

• The report relies on the 2009 ILCS dataset, which includes detailed information on household composition, income, consumption, and social transfers.
• Additional data from crisis response and coping strategies modules are used to assess the impact of the recession on households.
• The data is adjusted for regional and seasonal price differences, as well as for economies of scale and differences in consumption between adults and children.

Conclusion

• The global recession significantly worsened poverty in Armenia, particularly among the poor and in rural areas.
• The revised poverty lines provide a more accurate measure of poverty and are expected to remain in place for several years.
• Social protection programs were crucial in cushioning the impact of the recession on vulnerable populations.
• The study recommends maintaining and strengthening these programs to continue supporting the poor and preventing future increases in poverty.