2015年-世界发展银行全球_Jordan_Economic_Monitor_Fall_2015___A_Hiccup_Amidst_Sustained_Resilience_and_Committed_Reforms_42页_2mb

Jordan Economic Monitor Summary - Fall 2015

Core Content

The Jordan Economic Monitor for Fall 2015 highlights the country's economic performance and policy developments over the past six months, placing them in a global context. Despite sustained resilience and committed reforms, Jordan faces a hiccup in growth due to security spillovers from Syria and Iraq, which negatively impact tourism, trade, and overall economic activity. The report also examines the state of the tech startup ecosystem and outlines policy reform options to support long-term economic growth.

Main Economic Developments

Growth and Recovery

• Real GDP Growth: Jordan's real GDP growth slowed in 2015 to 2.5 percent, down from 3.1 percent in 2014.
• Quarterly Growth: The growth trajectory was halted in Q1-2015 due to security-related disruptions, but showed slight recovery in Q2-2015.
• Growth Drivers: The slowdown in the first half of 2015 was led by contractions in construction, tourism, and agriculture. However, growth was supported by mining and quarrying, as well as finance, insurance, and business services.
• Output Gap: The output gap in Q1-2015 was the lowest since Q4-2006, but it widened in 2014, indicating a negative growth outlook.

Unemployment and Labor Market

• Unemployment Rate: The average unemployment rate increased to 12.5 percent in H1-2015 from 11.9 percent in H1-2014.
• Labor Force Participation: Labor force participation rates improved slightly from 36.3 to 36.8 percent.
• Youth and Gender Unemployment: Unemployment among the 15–24 age group remained stable at 30.0 percent, while the average women's unemployment rate increased to 21.1 percent.
• Regional Variations: Ma'an had the highest unemployment rate at 16.7 percent, followed by Tafila (15.5%) and Mafraq (14.9%).

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit: The central government fiscal deficit improved in H1-2015, reaching 4.1 percent of GDP for the year.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratio: The gross debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 89.4 percent by end-2015 due to slower growth.
• Debt Composition: The government issued JD1.45 billion in Treasury bills and bonds in H1-2015, with redemptions at JD1.96 billion.
• Eurobond Issuance: The government issued US$1.5 billion in Eurobonds in June 2015, with two tranches, and plans to issue another US$500 million Eurobond in October 2015 without US guarantee.
• Sukuk Issuance: The government is preparing to issue its first Sukuk in Jordanian Dinar in Q4-2015 to diversify investor pools.

External Position

• Trade Deficit: The trade deficit narrowed due to lower energy imports, but the current account deficit is expected to widen to 7.1 percent of GDP for the year.
• Current Account: The current account deficit improved in H1-2015 to 4.2 percent of GDP, driven by lower imports and a decrease in tourism inflows.
• Remittances: Remittances receipts increased by 1.5 percent to JD1,798.3 million in the first eight months of 2015.

Monetary Policy and Finance

• Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Jordan cut policy rates by 25 bps in July 2015, totaling 125 bps since July 2013, to counter deflationary pressures.
• Inflation: Headline consumer prices contracted by 0.7 percent yoy, while core inflation abated to 3.1 percent, with tobacco, clothing, and rents contributing to the decline.
• Real Interest Rates: Real rates remain elevated by historical standards.
• Investor Sentiment: Investor sentiment is predominantly negative, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties.

Special Focus: Tech Startup Ecosystem in Jordan

Introduction

• Jordan has a growing tech startup ecosystem, with a focus on innovation and entrepreneurship.
• The ecosystem is supported by a range of factors including market conditions, funding availability, and the business environment.

Key Aspects of the Ecosystem

• Markets: Jordan's tech market is expanding, with a focus on digital innovation and local solutions.
• Spaces: Startups are increasingly utilizing co-working spaces and innovation hubs.
• Funding: Venture capital and government support play a significant role in funding tech startups.
• Business Environment: Jordan has made progress in improving the ease of doing business, though challenges remain.
• Networking: Startups benefit from networking opportunities and collaboration with local and international partners.
• Results: The tech startup ecosystem has shown promising results, particularly in the areas of digital services and e-commerce.

SWOT Analysis

• Strengths: Strong digital infrastructure, government support, and a growing entrepreneurial culture.
• Weaknesses: Limited access to capital, regulatory challenges, and high competition.
• Opportunities: Potential for growth in digital services, support from international organizations, and increased internet penetration.
• Threats: Economic instability, security spillovers, and weak investor sentiment.

Policy Reform Options

• Fiscal Reforms: Continued fiscal consolidation and revenue mobilization.
• Energy and Water Reforms: Diversification of energy sources, cost recovery in the electricity and water sectors, and promotion of renewable energy.
• Business Climate: Improving the business environment through regulatory reforms and reducing bureaucratic hurdles.
• Support Programs: Enhancing support for startups through innovation hubs and funding mechanisms.

Key Challenges and Risks

• Security Spillovers: Continued security issues from Syria and Iraq remain a major risk to economic stability.
• Oil Price Volatility: Fluctuations in oil prices affect the trade balance and fiscal sustainability.
• External Financing: Weak global capital market conditions may limit access to external financing.
• Structural Reforms: Ongoing structural reforms in the energy and water sectors are critical for long-term growth.

Conclusion

Jordan's economy is navigating a period of sustained resilience amidst security challenges and committed reforms. The slowdown in growth in 2015 is attributed to external shocks and domestic sectoral contractions. The tech startup ecosystem shows promise, supported by government initiatives and international collaboration. Continued fiscal and structural reforms, particularly in the energy and water sectors, are essential for achieving long-term economic stability and growth.