20251125-建信期货-棉花每日报告_5页_1mb

报告摘要

Date: 2025 November 25
Industry: Cotton

Current Situation: StMC (Styrene Monomer) prices exhibit volatility with recent oscillations. Spot cotton prices for 328 grade are around 14793 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 3 RMB/ton from the previous day. Prices for machine-harvested 3130/29B cotton range from 14500-14800 RMB/ton, with limited low-basis offers.
Basis Trends: CF01 contract basis for high-quality cotton falls between CF01+1000 and +1350, while lower offers exist; overall fundamentals are mixed due to weak downstream demand but cost-supported levels.

Textile sector primarily handles prior orders, with few new orders. Small firms operate on demand with manageable inventory; large firms see reduced production and inventory accumulation. High-quality cotton, such as pure Australian varieties, performs better in exports, but apparel and fabric markets remain subdued with limited volume and price increases.

Advising tactical buying at lower price levels, supported by cost factors and anticipated inventory rebuilding. Medium-term outlook hinges on China's Xinjiang cotton yield estimates and global supply-demand balance.

USDA export sales and CFTC持仓 reports are postponed until 2026. ICE futures fund net short position is negative at -27.25%, indicating short-term speculative activity.

China's cotton processing is active, with national cumulative checks reaching over 369.58 million tons by November 23, concentrated in Xinjiang.

Multiple charts illustrate price trends (e.g., CF1-5 and CF5-9 spreads), basis fluctuations, inventory levels, and foreign exchange impacts on the market.

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