2024-11-17-世界银行-移民_自动化和马来西亚劳动力市场（英）_47页_2mb

Migration, Automation, and the Malaysian Labor Market: Summary of Findings

1. Introduction & Context

• Malaysia, set to become high-income by 2025, faces labor challenges due to rapid aging and high educational attainment (over 40% of adults have post-secondary education), creating labor gaps potentially filled by low-skilled migrant workers.
• The 12th Malaysia Plan and the Madani Economy Framework aim to reduce reliance on low-skilled foreign labor, but migration policies have evolved to address economic needs during COVID-19, with some reforms to simplify approval processes.

2. Overview of Migration Policies

• Malaysia uses a two-tiered work permit system: low-skilled workers (Visitor’s Pass) and high-skilled workers (Employment Pass).
• Permanent residency pathways are restrictive, though programs like DE Rantau (digital nomad visa) are being explored.
• Temporary freezes on foreign worker hiring were lifted gradually; evidence suggests irregular migration remains significant despite policies.

3. Role of Migrant Workers in Labor Market

• Migrant workers (11.6% of labor force in 2022) are concentrated in low-skilled, manual jobs (e.g., agriculture, construction).
• Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Nepal are primary source countries for low-skilled migration.
• Contrary to concerns, empirical analysis shows the employment of migrant workers is associated with increased employment among Malaysians, particularly those aged 30+ and with secondary education.
• Migrants earn less on average due to concentration in low-paying jobs but younger demographics align with Malaysia's aging population.

4. Potential for Automation

• Malaysia aims to increase automation adoption by 2030 with robot density targets per 10,000 employees, with plans to become a regional hub for robotics and AI.
• Automation is expected to displace some low-skilled tasks while increasing productivity, potentially changing labor demand.
• Barriers include high technology costs, limited IT infrastructure, and skills gaps, especially in small firms.

5. Automatability Analysis by Workers

• Using task-based and occupation-based approaches, migrant workers perform tasks with higher routine intensity (more susceptible to automation).
• Immigration is associated with higher likelihood of workers being employed in automatable low-skilled roles, though evidence does not confirm negative impacts on Malaysian wages or job creation.
• Overall, migrant workers' tasks are generally more automatable than those of Malaysians, due to concentration in low-skilled occupations.

6. Summary & Conclusions

• The relationship between migration and automation is complex but migration is generally complementary to local employment, especially in an aging economy with a large workforce.
• Migration policies should aim to be demand-driven, with reforms focusing on livelihood and transparent levy systems. Removing misconceptions about negative economic impacts is crucial.
• Future adaptations must address automation's impact on labor demand, while considering demographic shifts and regional migration. Strengthening social dialogue and evidence-based policymaking can enhance feasibility.