世界银行-全球供应链中断对劳动力市场的影响（英）-2023.5-47页_544kb

The paper analyzes the labor market effects of a temporary 12% increase in international trade costs, modeled after COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, using a dynamic quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. For the U.S., the shock causes a temporary decline in labor force participation, particularly in service and agricultural sectors, while manufacturing employment increases due to higher costs but leads to unemployment upon shock dissipation. State-level impacts vary, with service-heavy states experiencing greater declines. Internationally, larger and less trade-dependent countries face smaller participation drops, while smaller open economies see larger effects. The shock results in a 0.14% welfare loss for the U.S., and sensitivity analyses show that higher monetary accommodation can mitigate unemployment. Results depend on initial openness and sectoral deficits, with policy implications highlighting the need for adaptive monetary responses to trade disruptions.