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Rice Outlook Summary (RCS-17B, Feb. 13, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global rice market outlook for the 2016/17 market year, including production, supply, use, and price forecasts, as well as revisions to these estimates based on updated data.

Key Highlights

U.S. Domestic Outlook

• Total U.S. rice supplies for 2016/17 remain projected at 294.1 million cwt, the second-highest on record, up 11% from the previous year.
• Long-grain supplies are forecast at 209.7 million cwt, up 16% from the previous year.
• Medium- and short-grain supplies are forecast at 81.6 million cwt, slightly down 1% from the previous year.
• Total production for 2016/17 is estimated at 224.1 million cwt, the largest since 2010/11, driven by an expanded planting area of 3.15 million acres, the highest since 2010/11.
• Yield for 2016/17 is 7,237 pounds per acre, the lowest since 2011/12, due to heavy rains and extreme heat in the South.
• Beginning stocks for all rice are forecast at 46.5 million cwt, down 4% from the previous year.
• Total imports for 2016/17 are forecast at 23.5 million cwt, down nearly 3% from the previous year.
• Exports for 2016/17 are forecast at 110.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still up 2% from the previous year.
• Ending stocks for all rice are forecast at 52.1 million cwt, up 12% from the previous year, the highest since 1985/86.
• Season-average farm prices (SAFP) for long-grain and southern medium- and short-grain rice were raised, with long-grain SAFP projected at $9.50-$10.10 per cwt and southern medium- and short-grain SAFP at $9.60-$10.20 per cwt.

Global Outlook

• Global production for 2016/17 is forecast at 480.1 million tons, up 2% from the previous year, the highest on record.
• Production revisions were made for Bangladesh, Kazakhstan, and Mexico, with Bangladesh and Kazakhstan seeing record yields and Mexico a significant increase due to favorable weather.
• Global consumption for 2016/17 is projected at 478.6 million tons, a record high, up 0.8 million tons from the previous projection.
• Global ending stocks are forecast at 118.0 million tons, up 1% from the previous year, still the highest since 2001/02.
• Global trade for 2017 is projected at 41.5 million tons, up 2% from the previous year, the first increase since 2014.
• Export forecasts for India, Thailand, and Burma were raised due to competitive pricing and increased demand.

Main Views

• U.S. supply is robust, with record levels of total rice supplies and production, driven by increased planting area.
• Export forecasts were lowered for long-grain milled rice, leading to higher ending stocks and a lower stocks-to-use ratio.
• Global market saw a slight increase in production and consumption, with some countries reporting significant growth in output.
• Price trends show a decline in U.S. long-grain milled rice due to weak global demand, while Thailand experienced a drop in prices due to government auctions, and Vietnam saw a slight increase.

Key Information

• Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on February 15, 2017.
• Next release is scheduled for April 13, 2017.
• The report was approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
• U.S. exports were reduced due to weaker demand and lower-than-expected sales outside core markets.
• Imports for the U.S. are expected to continue declining, especially for medium- and short-grain rice.
• Domestic use is projected to increase, influenced by higher post-harvest losses and increased demand.
• Price revisions for 2016/17 reflect changes in supply and global market conditions.
• U.S. farm prices are expected to remain below previous years due to increased supply and lower global prices.
• Global trade has seen a rebound in 2017, driven by increased exports from India, Thailand, and Burma, and higher imports from the UAE and Russia.
• Weather conditions played a significant role in shaping U.S. yield and production outcomes, particularly in the South.
• Data sources include the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, and the report includes tables for detailed analysis of U.S. rice supply and use by class and over time.

Summary Table Highlights