2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sweden_Selected_Issues_34页_958kb

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 15/330: Sweden

Core Content

This report analyzes the Swedish labor market and migration trends, focusing on the challenges and opportunities arising from demographic and structural changes. It discusses how Sweden's labor market institutions and policies influence employment outcomes, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the low skilled and foreign-born individuals. The report also highlights the role of migration in sustaining population and labor force growth, and the need for effective integration policies to reduce unemployment and enhance labor market participation.

Main Points

1. Labor Market Overview

• Sweden has a broadly well-functioning labor market with a healthy expansion of the labor force and solid employment growth.
• The employment rate in 2014 was among the highest in OECD countries, and the unemployment rate dropped to about 7.25 percent from an average of 8 percent over the past three years.
• However, there are significant disparities in labor market outcomes across groups, particularly among the low skilled and foreign-born populations.

2. Compositional Trends in the Labor Market

• A skill divide has emerged, with medium and high skilled workers experiencing solid growth in employment and declining unemployment, while low skilled workers face a sharp rise in unemployment.
• The participation rate increased by 2 percentage points over the past decade, reaching 72 percent in 2014.
• Foreign nationals have contributed significantly to labor force growth but have also seen a rise in unemployment due to their larger share in the labor supply compared to their employment contribution.

3. Migration and the Labor Market

• Sweden has a long history of immigration, with net migration inflows since the 1930s.
• Migration has demographic benefits, helping maintain population and labor force growth as the native population ages.
• Asylum seekers make up a large portion of recent migration inflows, with their integration into the labor market historically slower compared to other migrants.
• The integration rate for migrants is slow, with employment rates reaching 50 percent after 5 years and 60 percent after 10 years, compared to 77.75 percent for natives.
• The unemployment rate gap between migrants and natives has widened, reaching 10 percentage points in 2014 from an average of 7 percentage points in 2005–08.

4. Labor Market Institutions and Policies

• High entry-level wages in Sweden are driven by collective bargaining, which sets wage floors across sectors and occupations.
• Employment protection is asymmetric between regular and temporary contracts, with temporary contracts having lower protections. This asymmetry may contribute to higher unemployment among low skilled and migrant workers.
• Temporary employment has increased in Sweden, reaching 17.5 percent of employees in 2014, slightly above the EU average.
• Active labor market policies (ALMPs) are well-funded, with public spending on ALMPs reaching 2 percent of GDP in 2013, making Sweden one of the highest spenders in the OECD.
• However, wage subsidies dominate ALMP spending, with mixed effectiveness. Some studies suggest that wage subsidies have limited impact on long-term employment outcomes and may lead to displacement effects between different programs.

5. Policy Priorities

• To contain unemployment risks from rising migration, Sweden must address the high unemployment of the low skilled and accelerate migrant integration.
• The integration of asylum seekers is a key focus, with the Swedish public employment service (PES) providing targeted support, including language training, employment preparation, and social studies.
• Policy reforms are needed to improve the efficiency of ALMPs, reduce the reliance on wage subsidies, and enhance the recognition of foreign qualifications.

Key Information

• Unemployment rates for low skilled workers in 2014 were 19 percent, while foreign-born workers had an unemployment rate of 16 percent.
• Migration inflows have been increasing, with asylum seekers comprising about two-thirds of recent inflows, and the share of migrants from non-OECD countries has risen.
• The integration of asylum seekers is supported by a well-developed framework, including temporary work permits and introduction programs.
• Temporary employment has increased and plays a role as a stepping stone to permanent jobs, though transitions to inactivity or unemployment are also common.
• The unemployment rate could rise to 8.5 percent by 2020 under historical integration rates, but may remain stable at around 7.5 percent if integration accelerates.
• Wage subsidies are a major component of ALMPs but have limited effectiveness and may lead to displacement effects.
• Tax policies aim to support employment, but some measures, such as reduced social security contributions for the young and old, may have limited impact and high deadweight costs.

Conclusion

Sweden's labor market is well-functioning but faces challenges due to structural shifts and rising migration. The country must balance social equity with labor market efficiency, particularly in addressing the high unemployment of vulnerable groups and improving integration outcomes for migrants. Policy reforms are needed to enhance the effectiveness of labor market programs, reduce asymmetric employment protection, and promote better recognition of foreign qualifications to support long-term economic and social stability.