20220713-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_734kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMB International Securities Limited (CMBIS), focusing on the performance of Chinese corporate bonds, key macroeconomic developments, and specific issuer-related updates.

Market Conditions

Market Weakness: The market remained weak, with heavy selling in short-end papers, especially in the AMC (Asset Management Company) space and names in weaker regions like Shandong and Henan.
IG Market Decline: Chinese Investment Grade (IG) names continued their downward trend. TMT benchmark names like TENCNT and BABASpread saw widening spreads of 3-4bps and 2bps respectively.
Financial Sector: AT1 bonds generally declined by 0.25-0.5 points, with selling pressure on short-call-date papers.
LGFV/SOE Space: The tone remained fragile. While there was some buying in the long end early in the morning, selling pressure quickly took over, with 22s papers dropping over 4%.
Overall Sentiment: Sentiment was gloomy and anxious, with bid liquidity remaining extremely thin.

Top Movers

Top Performers

CHINSC 7 05/02/25: Price 21.1, Change +1.0
WYNMAC 5 1/2 10/01/27: Price 65.9, Change +0.9
GRNLGR 6 1/4 12/16/22: Price 44.8, Change +0.8
CHGRAU 9.109 PERP: Price 54.2, Change +0.7
WYNMAC 5 5/8 08/26/28: Price 62.9, Change +0.6

Top Underperformers

CENCHI 6 7/8 08/08/22: Price 56.5, Change -13.9
CENCHI 7 1/4 04/24/23: Price 29.1, Change -9.2
CPDEV 3.85 07/14/25: Price 75.6, Change -9.2
CPDEV 4.65 01/19/26: Price 75.9, Change -8.8
CIFIHG 5 3/8 PERP: Price 31.4, Change -8.0

Key Sector Analysis

Chinese Properties

Issue: A rising number of house buyers are refusing to pay mortgages for unfinished projects, leading to a potential crisis.
Impact: Banks and local governments may need to bail out troubled projects to maintain social stability.
Solution: Banks are likely to be selective, prioritizing projects where mortgage receivables significantly exceed construction costs.
Sector Implication: This may further depress primary sales sentiment. High-quality developers like Longfor may also face buyer concerns, pushing more demand to the secondary market.

PWRLNG

Update: Powerlong has received the requisite consent for its 4 bonds due from 2023-2026 to carve out cross-default triggers.
Exchange Offer: The exchange offer for PWRLNG 4.0% 07/25/22 (o/s USD200mn) and PWRLNG 7.125% 11/18/22 (o/s USD300mn) is set to conclude today, with results expected soon.

Offshore Asia New Issues

Priced Issues

China Development Bank HK Branch:
- RMB2500, 5yr, 2.95%, 2.95%, rating: -/A+/-.
- HKD3500, 2yr, 2.85%, 2.85%, rating: -/A+/-.

Pipeline Issues

Fujian Zhanglong Group (Green Bond):
- USD, 2Y11M, IPG 5.3%, rating: -/-/BBB-.

Macro News Recap

U.S. Market: U.S. stocks ended lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all declined.
Euro/USD: Euro traded at parity against USD for the first time in over two decades.
Oil Prices: WTI fell over 8% to settle under $96 a barrel.
Treasury Yields: The yield curve bull-flattened, with 2/5/10/30-year yields retreating to 3.03/3.01/2.95/3.13% respectively.

Additional Market Events

Onshore Primary Issuances: 52 credit bonds were issued yesterday for RMB55bn. Month-to-date, 467 credit bonds raised RMB521bn, a 2% YoY increase.
Issuer Updates:
- CQNANA: Chongqing Nan'an District Urban Construction & Development proposed to issue RMB4bn five-year corporate bonds.
- FRESHK: Far East Horizon proposed to issue RMB1bn three-year MTNs to repay bank loans.
- FTHDGR: Fantasia Holdings announced that Deloitte has resigned as its auditor.
- GRWALL: S&P placed China Great Wall Asset Management on CreditWatch with negative implications; Fitch noted that its ratings are not immediately affected.
- JINKE: Jinke Property terminated its proposed RMB1bn share buyback, using the funds for operating expenses and debt repayment.
- OLGPSP: Olam Group completed the redemption of SGD350mn 5.5% subordinated perpetual securities.
- SHNSUN: Shinsun Holdings signed an agreement to sell the target company to Agile Group for RMB339.73mn.
- TPHL: Times China proposed to delay the put of "20Shidai10" and "20Shidai12" by one year through a structural change.

Important Disclosures

Author Certification: The author certifies that all views expressed reflect personal opinions and that compensation is not directly or indirectly related to the views in the report.
Conflict of Interest: CMBIS may have positions or act as principal in the securities of companies mentioned in the report, which could affect the report's objectivity.
Distribution Restrictions:
- UK: The report is only provided to persons within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or High Net Worth Companies, etc.
- US: The report is only for distribution to "major US institutional investors" and not for individual investors.
- Singapore: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to legal restrictions.