2026-02-24-莱坊-Belgium_Industrial_Report_H2_2025_5页_6mb

Belgian Industrial Market Summary - H2 2025

Core Content

The Belgian industrial market in H2 2025 experienced a mix of growth and challenges, with semi-industrial and logistics segments showing distinct trends. The market demonstrated resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds, with increasing investment activity and occupier demand. However, external pressures and structural changes within the logistics sector highlighted the need for caution in assessing long-term sustainability.

Main Views

Semi-Industrial Market

• Strong Activity: The semi-industrial segment saw a significant increase in demand, with total take-up reaching 720,000 sq m in H2, an 88% rise compared to the previous semester. Full-year 2025 volumes were just above the five-year average of 1.1 million sq m.
• Own Occupier Dominance: Own occupier purchases accounted for 51% of take-up in H2, indicating a strong preference for direct ownership.
• Regional Performance: Greater Brussels recorded its strongest quarter in at least five years, while Flanders and Wallonia showed solid year-end activity.
• Market Maturity: The segment is maturing, with more substantial transactions and a growing institutional presence. The average weighted rent increased to €61/sq m/year in Q4, with prime rents in Greater Brussels at €85/sq m/year.
• Development Pipeline: Developers are expected to deliver at least 332,000 sq m of additional semi-industrial space by 2029, with business parks remaining a popular format.

Logistics Market

• Subdued Activity: The logistics market remained relatively subdued in H2, with total take-up of 386,000 sq m, bringing full-year 2025 figures to 674,000 sq m, the lowest in recent years.
• Transaction Trends: Despite lower volumes, the number of transactions increased, with 53 deals concluded in 2025 compared to 35 in 2024. Three of the five largest deals in 2025 occurred in H2.
• Occupier Shifts: 3PL operators were the leading occupier group, accounting for 58% of total take-up in 2025. The last-mile transport sector faced a structural crisis, with 413 company bankruptcies in 2025, mostly affecting small operators.
• Rental Trends: Prime logistics rents in Greater Brussels rose to €75/sq m/year, with proximity to Brussels Airport driving higher rents (up to €90/sq m/m). Average rents increased to €63/sq m/year in Q4.
• Investment Growth: H2 2025 investment activity reached €463 million, contributing to a full-year total of €1.05 billion, surpassing the long-term average and the Brussels office market.

Key Information

Economic Outlook

• GDP Growth: Expected to remain modest, at 1.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027.
• Inflation: Forecast to decrease in 2026 to 1.8% and rise slightly in 2027 to 2.0%.
• Unemployment: Projected to increase slightly to 6.2% by the end of 2026, then decrease to 6.1% in 2027.
• Government Expenditure: Ageing costs, interest payments, and defence spending are expected to drive expenditure up, with defence outlays targeting 2% of GDP by 2027.

Market Dynamics

• Semi-Industrial:
  • Strong demand and activity, especially in Greater Brussels.
  • Prime yield remains stable at 6.60%.
  • Institutional interest is growing, leading to more competitive pricing.
• Logistics:
  • Subdued volumes but increased transaction activity.
  • Prime yield remains at 4.90%, with long-term lease yields at 4.70%.
  • Logistics is seen as a more resilient and liquid asset class compared to Brussels offices.

Investment Highlights

• Semi-Industrial: €159 million transacted in H2, with full-year 2025 reaching €333 million. Sale-and-leaseback transactions became more prominent.
• Logistics: €463 million in H2 investment, with full-year 2025 total of €1.05 billion. International and domestic investors contributed significantly, with German and US investors showing renewed confidence.

Conclusion

The Belgian industrial market in H2 2025 reflects a period of transition and maturation, particularly in the semi-industrial segment. While logistics faces challenges due to a rationalisation phase and structural shifts in the last-mile sector, both segments are attracting increasing institutional and international investment, underscoring their strategic importance in Europe's logistics and industrial landscape.