20231020-国开证券-有色金属行业点评报告_地缘冲突再起_金价或短暂冲高_5页_684kb

报告摘要

Afghan War (2001): Gold prices surged before war, then plummeted sharply after, erasing gains almost entirely.
Iraq War (2003): Gold prices initially declined post-war but rebounded over about 1.5 months, leading to sustained upward trends.
Russia-Ukraine War (2022): Gold prices saw a small initial drop but surged extensively in the following weeks, reaching a historical high, followed by a near-30% decline over eight months.
Other conflicts (e.g., Libyan War, Syrian strikes) showed no clear pattern, reinforcing inconsistency in gold responses.

Gold price movements lack a consistent pattern, varying in direction and magnitude.
War effects are primarily short-term, while medium-to-long-term factors influence gold prices.
Gold prices often anticipate conflicts, with market expectations driving price adjustments before events unfold.

Gold prices have risen significantly since the October 7 conflict, with a 8% cumulative gain in 10 trading days, driven by rising apprehensions of escalation.
Prediction: Gold prices likely peak in the current phase before a full-scale war, based on historical anticipation patterns, but outcomes in larger conflicts remain uncertain.

Risk factors are detailed in the full report.

展开完整摘要