亚太能源概况2023-313页_2mb

APEC Energy Overview 2023 Summary

Disclaimer and Credits

• The APEC Energy Overview is an annual publication by APERC, showcasing the latest APEC energy data compiled by EGEDA.
• The views expressed are solely those of the authors.
• The report is prepared for the APEC Secretariat and supported by various individuals and organizations within APEC.

Foreword Highlights

• The 2023 edition includes data up to 2020, providing insights into the energy impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Despite the pandemic, solar and wind energy saw the highest annual increases ever recorded.
• The report discusses trends, policies, and developments across APEC economies.

Key APEC Energy Goals

1. Energy Intensity Improvement: APEC aims to improve energy intensity by 45% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels.
2. Renewable Energy Share: APEC aims to double the share of modern renewables in the energy mix by 2030 compared to 2010 levels.

Energy Supply and Consumption (2000–2020)

• Total Primary Energy Supply:

  • Fell by over 8,000 PJ (2.3% annual decline) in 2020.
  • Oil supply declined by over 6,500 PJ, contributing to most of the drop.
  • Renewables were the only supply category to increase by 1.8% in 2020.
  • Fossil fuels still account for 86% of APEC energy supply.

• Total Final Consumption:

  • Fell by 3.0% in 2020, with the largest drops in transport (11.5%) and services (5.9%) sectors.
  • Residential consumption remained largely unchanged due to work-from-home trends.
  • Non-energy use of energy commodities (e.g., petrochemical feedstocks) increased by 2.8%.
  • China was the only APEC economy to see an increase in energy demand in 2020 (1.9%).

• Power Sector:

  • Power generation increased marginally (0.2%) to almost 17,500 TWh in 2020.
  • Renewable generation (solar, wind, geothermal, hydro) increased by 14.9% to nearly 1,700 TWh.
  • Renewables' share of total electricity generation rose to 24.7%, up from 23.1% in 2019.
  • Thermal electricity generation fell by 2.0%, dropping below 65% of total generation.

• Emissions:

  • APEC saw the largest year-on-year decline in CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion (3.5% drop) due to reduced fossil fuel use during the pandemic.
  • CO₂ emissions reached levels last seen in 2012.

Progress Toward APEC Goals

• Energy Intensity:

  • Improved by 26% by 2020, with 19% more needed to meet the 2035 goal.
  • APEC is on track to meet the goal if current trends continue.

• Modern Renewables:

  • Share of final energy consumption increased from 6.0% in 2010 to 9.5% in 2020 (57% improvement).
  • APEC is ahead of schedule to double the share of modern renewables by 2030.
  • Renewable generation in electricity mix increased from 15.6% in 2010 to 24.7% in 2020.
  • Renewables in supply mix increased from 4.8% in 2010 to 7.3% in 2020 (53% increase).

Australia Chapter Summary

• Energy Supply:

  • Increased by about 1% annually over the last two decades, reaching 5,485 PJ in 2020.
  • Energy exports increased significantly, reaching over 13,000 PJ in 2020, 2.5 times greater than domestic supply.
  • Coal supply fell for the fourth consecutive year, making up less than 30% of the supply mix.
  • Oil (including refined products) remained the largest supply source (up 0.6% in 2020).
  • Natural gas supply increased by nearly 11%, reaching a level only 40 PJ lower than coal.
  • Renewables supply increased by 5.2%, now accounting for 7.6% of the energy supply mix.

• Energy Consumption:

  • Total final consumption fell by 3.0% in 2020, reaching 3,377 PJ.
  • The largest drop was in transport (6.7%), attributed to lockdowns, reduced mobility, and net migration.
  • Residential energy consumption increased by over 2.5%, offsetting the drop in commercial consumption.
  • Industrial energy consumption remained relatively stable over the past two decades.
  • Oil accounted for 50% of final energy demand in 2020, up from 47% in 2000 but down from 52% in 2019 due to the pandemic.

• Energy Mix:

  • Transport energy consumption is still largely dependent on oil.
  • Electricity is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades with the rise of electric vehicles and electrification of other sectors.
  • Australia's energy supply is more closely tied to economic growth than it was after the 2008 financial crisis.

• Key Trends and Policies:

  • Australia updated its NDC in 2022, committing to a 43% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2005.
  • The government introduced a domestic wholesale natural gas price cap to protect consumers.
  • Australia is a major exporter of coal, LNG, and uranium, with a focus on developing a Critical Minerals Strategy to support future industrial growth.

Conclusion

• The 2023 APEC Energy Overview provides a comprehensive assessment of energy trends and policies across APEC economies, highlighting the impact of the pandemic on energy demand and supply.
• Australia remains a key player in global energy markets, with a strong focus on coal, LNG, and uranium exports.
• Renewable energy growth has been significant, and APEC is on track to meet its energy goals, though continued efforts will be needed to ensure long-term sustainability and resilience.