国会研究服务部-新冠疫情的全球经济效应（英文）-2021.4-151页_2mb

Summary of Global Economic Effects of COVID-19

Core Content

The Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 report, updated on April 26, 2021, provides an overview of the economic impact of the pandemic on a global scale. It outlines the effects on workers, output, financial markets, and international economic cooperation, as well as the policy responses by governments and international institutions.

Main Points

Economic Impact Overview

• Global Economic Growth: The pandemic caused a significant global economic downturn, with estimates indicating a reduction in growth to -4.5% to -6.0% in 2020. A partial recovery of 2.5% to 5.2% is projected for 2021.
• Global Trade: Global trade volumes fell by 5.3% in 2020, with a projected increase of 8.0% in 2021. The economic toll was especially severe on trade-dependent developing and emerging economies.
• Unemployment and Labor Disruptions: The pandemic led to widespread labor dislocations, with 8.8% of global working hours lost in 2020, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs. Unemployment rates were particularly high in Europe and the Americas.
• Poverty and Social Impact: An estimated 95 million people may have entered extreme poverty in 2020, and 80 million more were undernourished compared to pre-pandemic levels. The human costs, including lives lost and social unrest, have had lasting effects on global economic growth.
• Long-Term Structural Changes: The pandemic is expected to have long-lasting effects on labor markets, including the permanent shift to telework, increased e-commerce, and accelerated adoption of AI and robotics.

Policy Responses

• Fiscal and Monetary Measures: Governments adopted unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize economies, including stimulus packages, unemployment assistance programs, and monetary interventions.
• U.S. Response: The U.S. passed a $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, signed by President Biden, to support the economy. The Federal Reserve also extended benefits and implemented monetary easing.
• European Response: The UK introduced a £65 billion stimulus package in 2021 and imposed strict lockdown measures in response to new infections and variants. Other European countries also faced vaccine distribution disputes and lockdowns.
• Japan Response: Japan implemented lockdowns in major cities and emphasized telework and reduced public gatherings.
• Multilateral Efforts: The IMF, World Bank, and WTO played key roles in coordinating global responses, including debt relief efforts, financial support, and calls for increased vaccine production.

Challenges and Concerns

• Debt Crises: Developing economies face rising debt levels, with concerns over a potential emerging market debt crisis as global recovery progresses and interest rates rise.
• Unemployment Disparities: The economic downturn disproportionately affected lower-wage and less-educated workers, racial and ethnic minorities, and women.
• Uncertainty and Recovery: The recovery has been uneven, with developed economies showing signs of recovery while developing economies lagged. The full economic impact remains uncertain due to the ongoing health crisis.

Key Information

• Global Infections: The virus spread to over 200 countries and all U.S. states, with India and Brazil becoming major hotspots by April 2021.
• Economic Downturn: The economic downturn was not as severe as initially feared due to fiscal and monetary interventions.
• Global GDP Forecasts: The OECD, IMF, and World Bank projected global growth to be 2.5% to 5.2% for 2021, with major advanced economies expected to operate below their potential output through at least 2024.
• Labor Market Recovery: In the U.S., nonfarm employment increased in March 2021, but the unemployment rate remained above pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment claims have decreased significantly since their peak in early 2020.
• Vaccine Distribution and Economic Recovery: Disparities in vaccine access have raised concerns about global economic recovery, with calls for intellectual property rights suspension to increase production and distribution in developing countries.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Composition of Working-Hours Lost by Region, 2020.
• Figure 2: Initial U.S. Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance, 2020 and 2021.
• Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims.
• Table 2: Investment Policy Instruments Adopted at the National and International Level.
• Table 3: Elements of Announced Fiscal Measures to Address COVID-19.
• Table 4: Developed Economy Worker Support Programs During the Pandemic.
• Table 5: Central Bank and Prudential Measures to Address the Pandemic.
• Table 6: Major Economic Forecasts.
• Table 7: OECD, IMF, and World Bank Forecasts.
• Table 8: WTO Forecast of Global Trade Volume and Real GDP.

Conclusion

The Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 report highlights the profound and lasting impact of the pandemic on the world economy, emphasizing the dual challenges of public health and economic stability. While some recovery has been observed, especially in developed economies, the long-term structural changes and persistent labor market issues indicate that the economic effects will continue to shape global economies for years to come. The role of international cooperation, fiscal and monetary policies, and vaccine distribution will be critical in determining the trajectory of global economic recovery.