国会研究服务部-黎巴嫩（英文）-2021.4-42页_1mb

Lebanon Summary

Core Content

Lebanon, a small country in the Middle East, has long struggled with defining its national identity due to its diverse religious and ethnic composition. Since its creation in 1920 by French authorities, the country has implemented a confessional system to allocate political power among its religious communities. This system, formalized by the 1943 National Pact and adjusted by the 1989 Taif Accords, has led to political gridlock and sectarian tensions, which have historically contributed to conflict, including the 1975–1990 civil war.

Lebanon's political landscape is divided into two major blocs: March 8 (pro-Syria and pro-Iran) and March 14 (anti-Syria and anti-Iran). The March 8 coalition, which includes Hezbollah, has held a majority in parliament since 2018. However, the country's government formation process remains stalled due to disputes over the distribution of ministerial portfolios and the influence of Hezbollah and other sectarian actors.

Lebanon also faces a humanitarian crisis due to the influx of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. As of 2021, Syrian refugees constitute 21.8% of the population, placing an immense strain on public services and host communities. The U.S. has provided over $2.7 billion in humanitarian aid since FY2012 to support refugees and alleviate the burden on Lebanese society.

The country is currently experiencing an economic crisis, with debt, fiscal, and currency issues leading to one of the worst economic collapses in its history. The World Bank has warned that policy inaction could lead to a social and economic catastrophe. This crisis has also affected refugees, increasing the risk of return to Syria and further straining Lebanon's resources.

Main Issues and Key Points

1. Confessional System and Political Dynamics

• Lebanon's political system is based on religious representation, with the presidency for a Maronite Christian, the prime minister for a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament for a Shi'a Muslim.
• The system, while intended to promote consensus, has instead led to political fragmentation and gridlock.
• The March 8 coalition (pro-Syria and pro-Iran) holds the majority in parliament, while March 14 (anti-Syria and anti-Iran) opposes this influence.
• Hezbollah, a key member of March 8, plays a dominant role in domestic politics and has military and political influence.

2. Government Formation Delays

• The government formation process is complex and often delayed.
• Sectarian demands and power struggles between political blocs are major causes of delay.
• Hezbollah and its allies have pushed for Shi'a control of key ministries, such as the Finance Ministry.
• President Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil (his son-in-law) are believed to be seeking to secure Bassil's future leadership by influencing the cabinet composition.
• Saad Hariri, a March 14 leader, has been unable to form a government despite his appointment as prime minister-designate.

3. Sectarian and Regional Tensions

• Hezbollah has intervened in Syria to support the Assad regime and has been involved in clashes with Israel.
• External actors such as Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. continue to influence Lebanon's politics.
• The U.S. has provided over $2 billion in military aid to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to counter Hezbollah and non-state actors.
• Hezbollah's military and political influence remains a challenge for U.S. policy, as it is seen as a threat to regional stability.

4. Protests and Political Upheaval

• A mass protest movement in 2019, sparked by a tax on internet calls, led to the resignation of Hariri and the collapse of the government.
• The protests reflected widespread dissatisfaction with corruption, economic mismanagement, and lack of political reform.
• The 2020 Beirut port explosion further destabilized the government, leading to the resignation of Hassan Diab.
• Political reform remains a key demand, with calls for technocrats to replace traditional political elites.

5. Economic and Humanitarian Crisis

• Lebanon is facing an economic crisis that includes debt, fiscal, and currency collapse.
• The World Bank has criticized the lack of policy action, warning of catastrophic consequences.
• The U.S. has provided over $2.7 billion in humanitarian aid since FY2012 to support refugees and host communities.
• The refugee crisis has been a major strain on Lebanon's infrastructure and economy, with over 855,000 Syrian refugees registered as of 2021.
• Refugee return to Syria is a contested issue, with some fearing security risks.

Key Information

• Population: ~5.26 million (2021 estimate)
• Religion: Muslim (61%) – Sunni (30.6%), Shi'a (30.5%); Christian (33.7%); Druze (5.2%); small minorities
• Area: ~10,400 sq km
• GDP (PPP): ~$99.7 billion (2019 estimate)
• Public Debt: 146.8% of GDP (2017 estimate)
• U.S. Military Aid: Over $2 billion since 2006
• U.S. Humanitarian Aid: Over $2.7 billion since FY2012
• Syrian Refugees: ~855,000 registered with UNHCR as of 2021
• Refugee Percentage: ~21.8% of total population

Outlook

• The government formation process remains stalled due to sectarian and political disagreements.
• Hezbollah's influence continues to challenge U.S. policy goals, particularly in marginalizing its power.
• Economic collapse and political stagnation pose security risks.
• U.S. policy is focused on strengthening state institutions, limiting Hezbollah's power, and supporting refugees.
• Regional tensions and external influences remain a major factor in Lebanon's domestic politics.