国会研究服务部-COVID-19的全球经济影响评估报告（英文）-2021.6-157页_2mb

Summary of the Global Economic Effects of COVID-19

Core Content

The Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 report, published by the Congressional Research Service on June 17, 2021, provides an in-depth analysis of the economic impact of the pandemic on countries and sectors worldwide. It outlines the effects of the virus on global economic activity, employment, trade, and financial markets, as well as the policy responses taken by governments and international institutions.

Main Views and Key Information

Global Economic Impact

• The pandemic caused a global economic recession in 2020, with growth estimated at -4.5% to -6.0%, the worst in nearly a century.
• Global trade declined by 5.3% in 2020, but is expected to grow by 8.0% in 2021.
• The economic downturn was mitigated by fiscal and monetary policies adopted by governments.
• Major advanced economies are projected to remain below potential output through at least 2024, affecting national and individual economic welfare.

Two-Track Recovery

• The global economy showed a two-track recovery, with developed economies recovering faster than developing economies.
• Developed economies experienced a nascent recovery in the third quarter of 2020, with the U.S. economy growing at 33.4% (annualized 5.0%) and the Eurozone at 12.5% (annualized -7.4%).
• Developing economies lagged behind due to resurgences in infections and resistance to vaccination.

Human and Economic Costs

• The pandemic has caused significant human and economic costs, including 95 million people entering extreme poverty in 2020 and 80 million more undernourished.
• Over 174 million people were infected globally, with over 3.7 million fatalities.
• The U.S. reported over 33 million infections and nearly 600,000 deaths by mid-2021.

Policy Responses

• Governments and international institutions implemented monetary and fiscal measures to stabilize economies and support workers.
• The U.S. passed the American Rescue Plan Act (P.L. 117-2), a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.
• The UK announced a £65 billion stimulus package, followed by lockdown extensions in response to rising infections.
• The EU and other developed economies initially resisted waiving intellectual property rights on vaccines, but later supported vaccine distribution to developing countries.

Challenges and Uncertainties

• Unemployment and labor dislocations have been significant, especially in the services sector, which is more affected by social distancing.
• Vaccination rates have varied widely, with some countries struggling to vaccinate their populations.
• Emerging market debt crises are a risk as interest rates rise and global recovery begins.
• Long-term structural changes in the labor market, such as the rise of telework and increased e-commerce, are expected to reshape employment patterns.

Economic and Social Effects

• The ILO estimated that 8.8% of global working hours were lost in 2020, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs.
• Unemployment was estimated to account for 0.9% of total working hours lost, while inactivity and reduced hours accounted for 7.9%.
• The U.S. unemployment rate was reported as 6.5% in January 2021, but the actual rate was likely closer to 10%, including discouraged workers.
• Workers in the services sector were more affected by the loss of in-person work, leading to job losses and economic restructuring.

Financial Market and Trade Effects

• Financial markets largely recovered from the March 2020 downturn, with indices rebounding.
• Global trade is expected to recover in 2021, but developing economies face greater challenges due to trade dependency.
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows were affected, with emerging markets experiencing capital outflows due to economic uncertainty.

Future Outlook

• The economic recovery is expected to be uneven, with developed economies leading the way.
• Long-term impacts include labor market damage, academic performance decline, and delayed labor market entry for students.
• Vaccine distribution and international cooperation are critical for a sustained global recovery.

Conclusion

The report highlights the profound and lasting economic effects of the pandemic, emphasizing the need for balanced policy responses and international collaboration to mitigate the damage and support a resilient economic recovery. It underscores the importance of addressing labor market disruptions, debt crises, and structural changes in the global economy.