国会研究服务部-海军结构和造船计划：背景和国会议题（英文）-2021.4-58页_1mb

Summary of Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. Navy's current and planned force structure, the annual ship procurement rate, the affordability of the Navy's shipbuilding plans, and the capacity of the U.S. shipbuilding industry to support these plans. These are key oversight issues for the congressional defense committees.

The Navy's current force-level goal, established in December 2016 and made U.S. policy by Section 1025 of the FY2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), is to achieve and maintain a fleet of 355 ships. However, this goal is being replaced by a new, more distributed fleet architecture, which includes a larger proportion of smaller ships and a new third tier of large unmanned vehicles (UVs).

The Biden Administration is reviewing the Trump Administration's defense plans, including the shipbuilding program, and may choose to adopt, revise, or set aside the proposed force-level goal and shipbuilding plan. The final FY2022 30-year shipbuilding plan is expected to be submitted alongside the FY2022 defense budget later this year.

Main Points

Navy's Existing 355-Ship Force-Level Goal

• The 355-ship goal was released in December 2016 and made U.S. policy in 2018.
• It includes manned ships only, with no inclusion of unmanned surface or underwater vehicles (UVs), which are considered extensions of manned ships.
• The goal is based on a Force Structure Assessment (FSA) that considers both warfighting and forward-deployed presence requirements.
• The current Navy fleet size is around 270 to 300 ships, which is 18% less than the 355-ship goal.

Navy's Next Force-Level Goal

• The Navy and DOD are working to develop a new force-level goal since 2019.

• The goal is expected to introduce a more distributed fleet architecture, with:

  • A smaller proportion of large ships (e.g., carriers, cruisers, destroyers, amphibious ships).
  • A larger proportion of smaller ships (e.g., frigates, LCSs, smaller resupply ships).
  • A new third tier of large UVs, including both unmanned surface and underwater vehicles.

• The new architecture is intended to:

  • Better counter maritime anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, especially from China.
  • Leverage technological advancements in unmanned systems and networked operations.
  • Be operationally necessary, technically feasible, and affordable.

December 9, 2020, Document

• The Trump Administration released a document on December 9, 2020, outlining a potential new force-level goal for 2045, which includes 382 to 446 manned ships and 143 to 242 large UVs.
• The document is not the FY2021 30-year shipbuilding plan, nor is it the final version of the FY2022 30-year plan.
• It can be viewed as a draft version of the FY2022 shipbuilding plan or a vision for future Navy structure.
• The costs of achieving the December 9, 2020, force-level goal are higher than those of the 355-ship goal:
  • Average annual shipbuilding costs would be 28% higher.
  • Total shipbuilding costs would average $34 billion per year (in 2021 dollars), 10% more than Navy estimates.
  • Annual operation and support costs for the fleet would grow from $74 billion to $113 billion by 2051.
  • The Navy's total budget would increase from $200 billion to $279 billion by 2051.

Affordability Concerns

• The prospective affordability of the new force-level goal is a concern, especially if DOD budget growth is limited.
• Some observers argue that the increased costs could require cutting funding for other DOD priorities, such as the Army, due to the emphasis on countering China in the national security strategy.
• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the cost of the December 9, 2020, plan, highlighting the financial implications for the U.S. defense budget.

Shipbuilding Industry Capacity

• The U.S. shipbuilding industry faces challenges in executing the Navy's shipbuilding plans.
• COVID-19 has impacted the capacity and timeline of shipyard operations.
• Historical data (see Appendix G) shows that the Navy has fluctuated in size, with the current fleet at around 300 ships.
• The industry's ability to meet future shipbuilding demands is a key issue for Congress, as it affects national security and funding requirements.

Key Questions for Congress

• Will the Biden Administration present a new force-level goal to replace the 355-ship goal, and if so, when?
• Is the current or proposed force-level goal appropriate for supporting U.S. national security and defense strategy?
• Is the more distributed fleet architecture the most cost-effective approach for meeting future mission needs?
• Are the FY2022 funding request, five-year plan, and 30-year shipbuilding plan consistent with the Navy's force-level goal?
• Is the U.S. shipbuilding industry capable of executing the proposed shipbuilding plans?

Conclusion

The Navy's shift toward a more distributed fleet architecture represents a significant change in its operational and strategic approach. While this shift is supported by technological advancements and adversary capabilities, it also raises affordability and industrial capacity concerns. The Biden Administration's review of the Trump plan will be crucial in determining the future direction of the Navy's force structure and shipbuilding efforts. Congress will need to assess the long-term implications of the proposed plans, including budgetary constraints, operational needs, and industrial base sustainability.